Maddow Blog | Republican megabill would make the rich richer and the poor poorer, CBO concludes

The night before House Republicans prepared to vote last month on their domestic policy megabill — the inaptly named “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” — the Congressional Budget Office released an analysis of the GOP’s legislative package. The findings from the nonpartisan CBO were rather brutal: The analysis concluded, among other things, that Republicans’ reconciliation bill would leave the poor with even less than they have now.

There was, however, a relevant problem with the projections: GOP leaders wrote and rewrote their not-so-beautiful bill in the middle of the night, changing the reconciliation package repeatedly in response to private backroom deals. The CBO did its best, but it was trying to assess a moving target.

With this in mind, the budget office continues to release revised analyses on the final version of the bill, and as Politico reported,

The lowest-income households in the United States would lose $1,600 a year in federal resources under the domestic-policy package House Republicans passed last month, Congress’ nonpartisan scorekeeper predicts. At the same time, resources would be increased by $12,000 for the highest-income households under the legislation, according to the analysis the Congressional Budget Office published Thursday. For middle-income households, the bill is projected to increase resources by $500 to $1,000 a year, an increase of less than 1 percent of their income.

This comes on the heels of a related analysis from the Joint Committee on Taxation, which also found that the Republicans’ tax policies would punish the poor and reward the rich.

House Speaker Mike Johnson appeared on Fox News last week and boasted, “If you are a hardworking American that is struggling to take care of your family, you are going to love this legislation.”

Reality appears to point in the opposite direction.

Indeed, Pennsylvania Rep. Brendan Boyle, the ranking member on the House Budget Committee, said in a statement that the Republicans’ legislation would cause “one of the largest transfers of wealth from working families to the ultra-rich in American history.” The Democratic congressman added, “It’s shameful.”

Economist Paul Krugman similarly described the distributive effect of the GOP package as “grotesque.”

I’m mindful that for much of the public, some of the categories described in the CBO report might not resonate. The typical person, for example, doesn’t know who’s in the top 20% or the bottom 20%. Noting whose income levels will climb 2% or fall 4% might not matter too much to regular folks.

But I suspect most people understand dollar amounts just fine — and according to the latest budget analysis, if Donald Trump’s plan is approved, those who are struggling most will end up with roughly $1,600 less per year, while those who are struggling the least will end up with roughly $12,000 more per year.

If recent history is any guide, GOP officials in the White House and Congress will ignore the latest evidence, but as the legislation incrementally moves forward, the public should take the data seriously.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.

This article was originally published on MSNBC.com