Elon Musk warns of population collapse due to falling birth rates: ‘Have 3 kids to make up for…’

MuTech billionaire Elon Musk has raised concerns about what he considers humanity’s most serious existential threat, ‘falling birth rates’. In a post on X, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO reacted to a user referencing a Fortune report, which claimed that women need to have an average of 2.7 children to sustain population levels.

Also Read: Elon Musk says ‘Doing my part’ to boost birth rates

What does the report say?

Nawfal shared statistics, referencing Fortune, and pointed out that the widely accepted replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman is now considered outdated. He wrote, “Scientists now say 2.1 kids per woman won’t cut it — 2.7 is the real number needed to avoid long-term extinction. Right now, the U.S. is at 1.66, and most rich countries are even lower, including Italy at 1.29 and Japan at 1.30.”

Also Read: India’s declining fertility threatens China-like demographic crisis, says Sanjeev Sanyal

Nawfal further explained that the revised figure accounts for variables such as individuals who never have children and gender imbalances at birth.

“People who have kids do need to have 3 kids to make up for those who have 0 or 1 kid or population will collapse,” Musk said while reposting Nawfal’s post.

Musk has connected declining birth rates to the collapse of past civilisations, particularly ancient Rome. He once remarked, “Low birth rates were the primary factor in their downfall — shockingly overlooked by most historians.”

Also Read: ‘At least three children’: RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat urges Indian families to counter population decline

Framing the issue as both a mathematical and civilizational crisis, Musk has consistently warned of long-term consequences, famously stating, “If you don’t believe me now, just wait 20 years.”

Over the past two decades, Elon Musk has fathered 14 children. He first became a parent in 2002 with the birth of his son Nevada Alexander, whom he shared with his then-wife, Canadian author Justine Wilson. Tragically, Nevada passed away at just 10 weeks old. Musk and Wilson later had five more children together: twins Vivian and Griffin, followed by triplets Kai, Saxon, and Damian.

A new report from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the UN’s reproductive rights agency, revealed that low fertility rates are increasingly common worldwide. In its most direct statement to date on falling fertility rates, the agency warns that hundreds of millions of people are unable to have as many children as they would like. Key reasons include the high cost of raising children and the difficulty in finding a suitable partner.

Also Read: Missing from India’s population narrative: Unmet family goals, financial barriers, coercion

The 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report by UNFPA, titled “The Real Fertility Crisis,” highlighted that India’s total fertility rate has dropped to 1.9 births per woman, which is below the replacement threshold of 2.1. 

“India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates – from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare,” said Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.