$450 billion—This is what Trump’s proposed $2000 dividend from tariff revenue would cost, says new analysis

A new analysis suggests that President Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff checks could cost around $450 billion, offering only modest increases in economic growth and employment, Axios reported. At that cost, the payments would reportedly exceed more than a year’s worth of tariff revenue, leaving no funds for the other purposes Trump has mentioned, such as debt reduction or farmer relief.

After months of hinting at the idea, Trump and his economic team have recently increased public discussion of the checks, as the president seeks to pressure the Supreme Court to uphold his broader tariff programme.

‘Tariffs allow us to give a dividend’

According to a Forbes report, Trump mentioned last week that the payments would come “sometime next year, during the year”, adding, “We’ve taken in a lot of money from tariffs. The tariffs allow us to give a dividend.”

While stating that the promised $2,000 would not be issued to “high income people”, Trump took to Truth Social on November 9 and said, “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER.”

He further said, “We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon begin paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place. A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone”.

Trump, in the Oval Office on Monday night, clarified that the checks could begin going out in mid-2026, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that Congress would need to pass legislation to authorise them, a step that is far from certain, the Axios report said.

The Yale Budget Lab released an analysis Monday night estimating that Trump’s proposed $2,000 checks would cost roughly $450 billion if distributed to every individual earning under $100,000, the report said.

For context, the government reportedly gathered $195 billion in tariff revenue in fiscal 2025 and is projected to bring in about $420 billion in fiscal 2026. The Yale study projected that the checks would boost GDP by 0.3 percentage points and increase employment by 0.15 percentage points in 2026, though these effects would diminish over time.

Despite concerns that another large stimulus payment could drive inflation, similar to the “stimmy” during the Biden administration, the lab found only a minimal impact. Inflation is estimated to rise by less than 0.1 percentage points in the coming years if the checks are issue.

As per the report, the push comes amid a growing affordability crisis, which has already created political challenges for Republicans. The proposed timing would place the payments in voters’ hands just ahead of the critical 2026 midterm elections.