China exports to U.S. plunge as tariffs hit, leading some experts to warn of product shortages

Shipments of goods from China to the U.S. are dropping sharply with the Trump administration’s steep tariffs in place, leading major U.S. retailers to warn about impending supply shortages. 

The trade war between China and the U.S. has escalated over the past few weeks, with each nation hiking its import duties multiple times in a tit-for-tat. While Trump has given other countries a 90-day pause on the tariffs, as their leaders pledged to negotiate with the U.S., China has remained the exception. 

U.S. import duties on Chinese products now stand as high as 145%. China, meanwhile, has hit back with 125% tariffs on U.S. products. 

At the Port of Los Angeles, which, along with the Port of Long Beach, receives roughly 40% of all imports from Asia, shipments last week were down 10% compared with the same period one year earlier. That number is expected to keep falling. 

“We are now beginning to see the flow of cargo to the Port of Los Angeles slow,” Port of Los Angeles executive director Eugene Seroka said at a Los Angeles Board of Harbor Commissioners meeting on April 24. “It’s my prediction that in two weeks time, arrivals will drop by 35%,” he added. 

U.S. retailers had rushed to import goods into the country ahead of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs going into effect, leading to a spike in imports since last summer. Now, with the 145% tariffs making goods from China roughly two-and-a-half times more expensive than they were last year, “essentially all shipments out of China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased,” Seroka said. 

By another estimate, container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by as much as 60%, according to Flexport, a supply chain management company.  

The dip comes during what is usually a busy period for imports to the U.S. “We would normally see an increase in bookings across the board, because this is the beginning of the shipping year,” said Nathan Strang, director of ocean freight at Flexport. “It’s when back-to-school items and Halloween items start to come in.”

What’s more, retailers have likely stockpiled sufficient inventory to last a couple of months, Seroka said, adding that come summer, consumers could find that many products are out of stock. All manner of goods flow through the Port of Los Angeles to end up in households across the U.S. 

The port’s top five import categories are furniture, auto parts, clothing, plastics and footwear, a port spokesperson told CBS MoneyWatch. 

Empty shelves 

Major retailers and small establishments alike are warning that consumers could soon face tariff-related inventory shortages. Goods that do land on store shelves could be subject to price hikes, once “tariff surcharges” are added. 

Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Sløk warned in a recent blogpost that a consequence of tariffs will be “empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and COVID-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods.”

Last week, the CEOs of Walmart and Target privately cautioned President Trump that his sweeping tariff policy could lead to gaps on store shelves, if it remains in effect, Axios first reported. 

“We had a productive meeting with President Trump and his team and appreciated the opportunity to share our insights,” Walmart said in a statement. 

Target also said in a statement that it “had a productive meeting with President Trump and our retail peers to discuss the path forward on trade, and we remain committed to delivering value for American consumers.”

Both retailers had previously publicly warned that the levies could lead to higher prices for consumers. 

“We never want to raise prices,” but “there probably will be cases where prices will go up for consumers,” Walmart CFO John David Rainey told CNBC.

Last month, Target CEO Brian Cornell told CNBC, “the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days” as a result of tariffs planned on imports from Mexico.

Widespread booking freeze

Logistics groups are also reporting sharp declines in cargo shipments from China. 

For the week of April 14, booking volumes from China to the U.S. dropped 45% compared with the same period one year earlier, according to Vizion, a container tracking service. 

“This dramatic drop aligned with two key developments: the April 4th U.S. tariff announcement, followed by China’s retaliatory measures announced on April 5th. The result? A widespread booking freeze, as shippers paused mid-shipment cycle to reassess costs, timelines and broader trade strategy,” Vizion said in a report. 

Freightos, a freight booking platform, notes that carriers are canceling sailings from China at a fast clip, because they can’t fill their ships with goods. Ocean container prices have dropped from $8,100 in July 2024 for a standard 40-foot container, to roughly, $2,327, the group noted.

Many importers are pausing shipments until they gain more clarity into Mr. Trump’s tariff plans. A Freightos survey of 195 small importers found that 33% of businesses planned to pause shipments in response to the tariffs. 

Kristin Bear, owner of a U.S.-based lingerie company, Kilo Brava, is hoping Mr. Trump softens his stance on tariffs, so that she can continue to manufacture garments in China and import them to the U.S. She can’t afford to import goods with 145% tariffs in place, and if they don’t come down, “we’ll just have to abandon the goods and close the company,” she said.