In charts: India’s tourism sector stands at a crossroads

A Mint analysis of tourism statistics released in March 2025 shows that foreign tourist arrivals to India rose consistently until 2019, hitting 11 million visitors. After covid led to lockdowns around the world, the number dropped to 2.7 million in 2020 and 1.5 million in 2021. While there has been a  partial recovery since then, the numbers of visitors has been around 8-9 million in recent years. In 2024, 9.7 million foreign tourists arrived – less than the 2019 peak.

On the other hand, outbound travel from India, for reasons ranging from holidaying to education, has scaled new heights. It surpassed 2019 levels in 2023, with 27.9 million Indians travelling abroad. This rose further to 30.2 million in 2024 is currently 12% higher than 2019 levels. The quick recovery in outbound travel by Indians has widened the gap with foreign tourist arrivals over the past two years.

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There’s also been a notable shift in the composition of international tourists arriving in India. A decade ago, foreign tourists accounted for nearly 60% of all international arrivals, with non-resident Indians making up the rest. In recent years, the share of NRI arrivals has increased and now equals the number of foreign tourist arrivals.

Forex hit

The lacklustre momentum in tourist arrivals, coupled with the pandemic losses, can be seen in the amount of foreign currency India earns from tourism. Earnings rose to $33.2 billion in 2024, nearly 20% more than in the previous year. However, earnings were only slightly above 2019 levels. 

The compound average growth rate (CAGR) between 2019 and 2024 was only 1.6%, which pales in comparison to historical trends. While the CAGR had been falling, it was still 9.3% between 2014 and 2019. The tourism sector increased its share in the country’s GDP from 1.5-1.75% in pandemic years to 5% in 2022-23. However, this was below the FY20 level of 5.18%.

Nevertheless, forex earnings have grown faster than foreign tourist arrivals, which indicates a higher spending per tourist. In 2024, average spending per foreign tourist stood at $3,436.6, compared to $2,949.3 in 2023 and $2,810.7 in 2019.

Goan elsewhere

The growing popularity of destinations such as Vietnam and Indonesia, especially among Indian tourists, in the past few years has created the perception that India’s most popular beach destination, Goa, has lost its charm. Pictures of empty shacks and desolate beaches have been doing the rounds on social media. However, the statistics show that Goa was never as popular as it was perceived to be, with a less than 1% share in overall domestic and foreign tourism. In comparison, states such as Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka had a share of more than 10% each in 2023.

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So has tourism to Goa declined in recent years? The answer isn’t straightforward. The number of domestic and international visitors increased to 8.63 million in 2023, a sharp rebound from pandemic lows and higher than 2019 levels. As for its share in overall tourism in India, after surging to about 0.5% in pandemic-hit 2020, it declined to 0.34%, which is slightly lower than its 0.46% share in 2017.

Trump factor

India has seen a post-pandemic boom in outbound travel. The UAE has consistently been the top destination, cornering a fourth of the market in 2024. Saudi Arabia (11.03% share) and the US (6.9%) came next. More than 40% of Indians who travelled abroad did so for holidays and vacations.

But 2025 may bring big changes, with the US—the third most popular destination for Indians—tightening up under US President Donald Trump. There have been reports of aggressive crackdowns on illegal immigrants as well as questioning, deportation and denial of admission to tourists. This reflected in US visitor numbers as well.

There has been a sharp decline in overseas travel to the US since Trump’s return to office, with arrivals from countries such as Germany and South Korea falling 16.5% and 12.7% year-on-year, respectively, in January-March 2025. In comparison, the drop in visitors from India is marginal. However, these developments could potentially affect Indians planning to visit the US.

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