Last week, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) proposed a duty of $121.5 per ton of hot-rolled flat products of alloy or non-alloy steel from Vietnam. Once notified by the Centre, the duty will stay in effect for five years.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) flats are key inputs for welded pipes and tubes, automobiles, and construction. With the tariff in place, Vietnamese steel will turn costlier than finished steel from Indian producers.
India’s imports of HRC have more than doubled in just two years, rising from 1.87 million tonnes in FY23 to 3.55 million tonnes in FY24, and further to 4.07 million tonnes in FY25, according to Big Mint, a market intelligence firm.
“The anti-dumping duty addresses the immediate challenge of cheap steel imports, stabilising domestic prices and supporting capacity utilisation,” said an executive at one of India’s largest steel mills, who did not want to be named.
“In the long term, it encourages domestic investment, strengthens the value chain, and supports India’s self-reliance in steel.”
Supply–demand equation
Apart from Vietnam, India’s biggest steel suppliers include South Korea, Japan, and China. India produced 146.56 million tonnes of finished steel in FY25, of which 54.12 million tonnes was HRC. Consumption outpaced production at 152 million tonnes of finished steel, including 56.90 million tonnes of HRC, according to Big Mint.
According to industry experts, India’s current steel production closely matches its total consumption, indicating a market primarily focused on meeting domestic demand. The country mainly relies on imports from South Korea and Japan for certain specialised steel grades that are not produced locally. For grades where domestic capacity exists, India has implemented protectionist measures such as safeguard and anti-dumping duties to support its producers.
Vietnamese HRC imports made up 11% of India’s HRC inflows last year, falling to 0.45 million tonnes (mt) in FY25 from 0.62 mt in FY24, according to Big Mint.
Pattern of crackdowns
This isn’t India’s first action.
Similar tariffs exist on seamless tubes and pipes and stainless steel pipes and tubes imported from China, electro-galvanised steel from Korea, Japan and Singapore, and welded stainless steel pipes and tubes from Vietnam and Thailand, according to a submission made by H. D. Kumaraswamy, Union Minister of Steel, in the Rajya Sabha on 12 August.
DGTR noted that dumped imports hurt profitability and returns of Indian mills. “There is also a threat of further aggravated injury…if anti-dumping duty is not imposed,” said DGTR in a report.
Price pressure remains
However, while imports fell after the expiry of Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) certification for Vietnamese mills, the lower prices continue to pressure domestic steel prices. Hence, the duty imposition will have a significant impact in the coming years.
In a post-earnings interview with Mint, JSW Steel CEO Jayant Archarya explained that import prices continue to influence the domestic market regardless of volumes.
According to Big Mint CEO Dhruv Goel, the short-term impact will be minimal, but the move could be significant over time. “Vietnam is emerging as a major steel producer and can easily export to India, especially under the ASEAN free trade agreement,” said Goel.
In simple words, with the duty in place, countries with Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that earlier exported steel to India at little or no duty, making it cheaper, will no longer be able to do so.
SAIL welcomed the move, saying imports of carbon steel flat products from Vietnam had “surged manifolds in the last few years”. “This is not only impacting domestic steel producers in the short term by taking away market share, but is also negatively impacting the long-term visibility and growth prospects for the domestic steel industry, which requires huge investments for its steelmaking infrastructure,” said a company spokesperson.
“If corrective measures are not taken, this trend shall seriously impair the required growth of the domestic industry for meeting the growing national steel requirements. While the present duty on Vietnam shall in the short term help arrest the surge in imports, it will also convey the message to the world that India is ready and able to take appropriate measures wherever required to protect its economy,” it added.
JSW Steel, Tata Steel, Jindal Steel Limited, and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India did respond to Mint’s queries.
Earlier, JSW’s Acharya had also flagged risks from such trade routes. During the analyst call for the last quarter of FY25, Acharya said the company remains watchful of imports from “countries like Vietnam, Japan and Korea, which have an FTA agreement with us (India), continue to pose risk”.
The DGTR had started an investigation last year on the concerning imports from Vietnam after the Indian Steel Association had applied on behalf of domestic producers, like JSW Steel and ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India Limited, for the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation.
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