India’s annual electronics exports expected to double to $50 billion by 2030

This surge is expected to be driven by the IT ministry’s push for raising the share of locally manufactured components for smartphones, laptops, as well as semiconductor chips, both by local as well as foreign companies.

On Tuesday, Union IT minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said India’s annual electronics exports to the world crossed ₹2 trillion ($23 billion) in FY25. “This marks a 54% growth over FY24,” he said, adding that electronics production has grown 5x at a compounded annual rate of more than 17% over the past decade. “Exports grew even faster, rising 6x since 2015 at a CAGR of over 20%,” the minister said.

Now, the three executives cited above said India’s latest moves can help the country continue this pace of growth, crossing what one of them said is “an important milestone” as trade tensions globally, and especially between the US and China, continue to escalate.

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“The three big reasons why India is stepping up its push to bring more electronics manufacturers to the country are to insulate itself from geopolitical disruptions, increase its importance in the global electronics supply chain, and ramp up India’s net exports to the world,” one of the executives cited above said on condition of anonymity.

This person added that electronics is an obvious candidate driven by the demand for cutting-edge technology in all industries, for which key component makers need to be present in India. “The current set of incentives can have a big impact in attracting foreign companies to set up shop locally,” the executive said.

Incentive scheme

As part of the incentive scheme notified by the ministry of electronics and information technology (Meity) on Tuesday, the Centre will offer companies ranging up to 10% of annual turnover for electronics components mostly used in smartphones, and up to 25% of capital expenditure incurred in locally building equipment and machinery used in the electronics industry.

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The net incentive outlay will span $2.7 billion across six years. A key part of the scheme is the eligibility for foreign companies to access these incentives.

“The exact contours will be chalked out for foreign companies by keeping in mind India’s best interests,” Vaishnaw said. “Details of how the foreign incentives will work will be revealed later.”

Each of these moves will cumulatively help India cross $50 billion in annual electronics exports within five years, each of the above-cited executives said. Vaishnaw, without putting a figure, said that exports of electronics “will grow more than its past decade’s growth”.

As per these officials that Mint spoke with, India’s electronics exports have been pegged to grow at 17% CAGR until 2030. Stakeholders said that the growth pace, while being consistent with the past decade, is more important than before.

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“Achieving 17% annual growth at an industry size of nearly $25 billion is a far bigger task than doing it over the past decade, when India’s export of electronics were practically non-existent,” the second executive cited above said, also requesting anonymity.

Once achieved, electronics exports alone will account for 10% of India’s overall electronics economy, which is pegged to cross $500 billion in net annual revenue by 2030.

Ankush Wadhera, managing director and partner at consulting firm Boston Consulting Group (BCG) India, said India’s current incentives scheme will “certainly” help generate greater domestic value. “More importantly, it will help India establish a more sophisticated electronics supply chain in the country, which in the long run will drive greater value of exports,” he said.

Ashok Chandak, president of industry body India Electronics and Semiconductor Association (Iesa), told Mint that ramping up exports could be a crucial thing going forward. “Even if the domestic consumer economy is not soaring, focusing on exports can help India fill that gap and push for its targeted economic growth in the long run,” Chandak said.

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The move is important for India in attempting to close the huge gap with China. On 6 February, data released by China’s ministry of industry and information technology (MIIT) said that in 2024, it exported 143 million laptops, 814 million phones, and over 298 billion integrated circuits. These exports cumulatively amounted to net export revenue of $2.2 trillion for China.

India’s export value, thus, accounts for around 1.5% that of China’s.