Renewables beat coal in power generation, but IEA says global 2030 climate goal remains out of reach — here is why

Solar and wind farms have generated more electricity than coal for the first time on record this year, marking a milestone in global efforts to reduce consumption of fossil fuels, which are responsible for the majority of greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change.

Despite this positive shift, the growth in adopting renewables has been slowed down due to policy shifts in the US and China, putting the global 2030 target out of reach, according to an AFP news report.

Renewables vs coal growth

According to energy think tank Ember, renewables’ share of global electricity rose to 34.3% in the first half of the year, while coal’s share fell to 33.1%. Meanwhile, gas maintained its 23% share during the same period.

Solar power generation saw the largest increase, jumping by a record 31% in the first six months of 2025, far outpacing wind, which grew 7.7%. Coal fell by 0.6%, whereas global gas generation inched down by 0.2%, the report showed.

This shift indicates that clean power is beginning to keep pace with the world’s growing demand for electricity. “Solar and wind are now growing fast enough to meet the world’s growing appetite for electricity,” said Malgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior electricity analyst at Ember.

Global 2020 target now out of reach

Despite the recent decline in coal use, policy shifts in the US and China are slowing the overall growth of renewable energy, leading to a downbeat forecast for achieving the global climate goal.

At the United Nations climate summit in Dubai in 2023, the world made a historic pledge to transition away from fossil fuels, with nations also setting a goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has now revised the forecast, stating on Tuesday that the world would “fall short” of reaching the target.

But the IEA now projects only a 4,600-GW gain by 2030, or 2.6 times the 2022 level, down from the previous forecast of 5,500 GW. The agency, which advises developed nations on energy, cited “policy, regulatory and market changes since October 2024” as the reason for the reduction.

Policy shift in US and China

The IEA revised down its forecast for the United States by almost 50%. This dramatic change is attributed to policy decisions by President Donald Trump’s administration, including the early phase-out of tax credits for renewables and the implementation of tighter regulatory controls over projects.

Trump, who has pushed for more oil and gas production, called climate change “the greatest con job ever” at a UN speech last month and claimed that renewables are an expensive “joke” that “don’t work”.

Meanwhile, China’s policy shift from providing fixed tariffs for renewable energy producers to using auctions has affected project profitability, lowering growth expectations. However, China still accounts for the majority of growth in renewable energy and is still on track to attain its 2035 wind and solar power target five years ahead of schedule, AFP reported.

Indian and other regions show strong growth

While growth outlook in the largest two economies may be slowing, the IEA has a more positive outlook for several other regions.

India is on track to meet its 2030 target and “become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to rise by 2.5 times in five years”.

Other than India, the IEA has also raised its forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25%. Forecasts were also revised higher for several European nations, including Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain.

Overall, solar panels have been the driving force behind renewable growth, accounting for approximately 80% of the global increase in renewable energy over the past five years, followed by wind, water, biomass, and geothermal power, according to the AFP report.