How GLP-1s, Wegovy, Zepbound are reshaping the economy

Miracle drugs, obesity treatments and skinny jabs. Call them what you will, few drugs have had a more transformative effect on Wall Street and waistlines over recent decades than GLP-1s.

Familiarly known under the brand names Wegovy and Zepbound, Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists are a class of medication used to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity by mimicking hormones produced in the gut to suppress a person’s appetite and regulate blood sugar.

Since Wegovy first received U.S. approval to treat obesity in 2021, and Zepbound in 2023, the drugs have skyrocketed to fame, bringing long-sought solutions to tens of millions of patients and supercharging the growth of respective parent companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Obesity is a significant risk factor in many of the leading causes of death. As new applications — and competitors — for the drugs come to light, Wall Street is betting big on the burgeoning industry, with estimates suggesting it could be worth upwards of $100 billion by 2030.

Sophie Dix, head of medical affairs at MedExpress, said the drugs’ potential novel applications were “unexpected and promising,” with new indications for Psoriasis, Asthma, Chronic kidney disease, fatty liver disease, obstructive sleep apnoea, Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS), obesity–related cancers, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease.

Experts say the wide-ranging swathe of applications could open up potentially sweeping implications for both health outcomes and the economy.

The current cost of the drugs is sizeable, with the U.S. list prices for a month’s supply of Lily’s Zepbound or Novo’s Wegovy ranging from $1,079.77 to $1,349.02. Estimates from the Jama Health Forum suggest that U.S. Medicare coverage of GLP-1s would increase net spending under the retiree health program by $47.7 billion alone over the next 10 years.

But the anticipated health and economic outcomes are significant, too. Poor health from obesity and obesity related illnesses weigh significantly on health systems and overall productivity, including through lost hours worked, early death and informal caregiving.

Goldman Sachs estimates that GLP-1s could boost U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.4% via increased productivity and healthcare savings, assuming a baseline adoption of 30 million users, according to a 2024 report. An estimated 2% of U.S. adults — approximately 5 million people — were taking GLP-1s as of a May 2025 report from non-profit Fair Health.

“Poor health imposes significant economic costs that would diminish if health outcomes improve,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in the report. “Academic studies find that obese individuals are both less likely to work … and less productive when they do.”

Meanwhile in Denmark, Wegovy-maker Novo Nordisk’s market capitalization eclipsed that of its home nation’s entire GDP in 2024, and the country’s large and growing weight loss drug industry continues to have an outsized contribution to the economy.

As such, GLP-1s’ perceived potential — both in obesity and diabetes treatment as well as other health conditions — is seen sparking a new era of drug innovation, with Dix describing the possible impact as “profound” for both future drug development and new job creation.

Pharma giants including AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Roche and Zealand Pharma are already developing competitor obesity treatments, while many more are expanding into metabolic and cardiometabolic disease research, and development with obesity as an entry point.

“It’s also important to keep in mind that first-in-class is rarely best-in-class. Follow-up drugs may be more powerful, more selective and with side effects ironed out or controlled with combination therapies. As a result, I would anticipate there to be improvements in efficacy, tolerability (fewer side effects) and convenience,” Dix said.

The extensive adoption of weight loss drugs is also seen having major effects on consumer spending patterns, particularly given the higher propensity for discretionary spending among many wealthier, self-funded users.

“These consumers which are the most likely to take the drugs are also the ones that are responsible for a lot of consumption,” Aljoscha Janssen, assistant professor of economics at the Singapore Management University, said via video call.

Unsurprisingly, the most visible impact of that at present is on the food and beverage industry. A 2024 Cornell University study found that households with at least one GLP-1 user cut their grocery spend by 5.3% within six months of adoption, with that rate rising to 8.2% among higher-income households.

Those who remained on the drugs for six to 12 months continued to reduce their spend, though at less dramatic rates, according to updated findings as of Aug. 2025. Meanwhile, those who discontinued the medication returned to pre-adoption spending levels — and, in some cases, rose above them.

Processed snack foods such as chips, cookies and bakery items saw the largest cutbacks in spending, though reductions were also noted across many staple categories. Only modest increases were recorded in healthier items, such as yoghurt and fresh fruit.

“The pattern is less about switching to ‘better’ foods and more about simply buying less food,” Jura Liaukonyte, professor of marketing and applied economics at Cornell University and one of the report’s authors, told CNBC via email.

That could have significant implications for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms, as well as food producers more broadly. Indeed, some companies such as Nestle and Danone have already begun launching new lines to diversity their product base and cater for shifting trends. These include high protein meals, smaller portion sizes and foods aimed at encouraging muscle retention.

“Manufacturers and retailers have very specific customers who buy very specific products,” Janssen said. Typically, this is good for building brand loyalty, he noted. “But when you have something that is changing the behavior of consumers, as a weight loss drug could do, this becomes pretty risky.”

The impact of the drugs could go well past food, too. GLP-1s control appetite by targeting the brain’s reward pathway, and specifically the release of dopamine to the part of the brain linked to motivation, pleasure and reward. As such, early studies suggest applications for the drug in the treatment of addictions.

“This modulation of the brain’s reward system extends beyond food, with early evidence suggesting benefits in reducing alcohol misuse, drug dependence, and even gambling,” Dix said.

That has raised concerns for the producers of recreational stimulants like alcohol and tobacco. Cornell’s study, for its part, noted no “meaningful” change in alcohol purchases among GLP-1 users, mirroring other literature which points to a potential reduction in intensity of drinking episodes rather than frequency.

Spirits giant and Johnnie Walker-maker Diageo said earlier this month that it was “keeping a close eye” on GLP-1s but indicated that the impact so far “has not been significant.”

Elsewhere, the ramifications for other sectors appear wide-reaching. Analysts have posited shifts in retail spending — including greater activewear sales to reduced oversized demand — and fuel-savings for airlines from lighter passenger loads. Gyms and personal trainers could also see an uptick in demand, while vacation resorts capitalize on new opportunities to cater for more active and health-oriented visitors.

More immediately, eateries from fast-food chains to upscale restaurants are reckoning with a new consumer landscape and potentially lower future demand.

“In the short run, yes, these drugs reduce spending at fast-food and quick-service restaurants. At a national level, this already translates into billions of dollars in reduced sales,” Liaukonyte said.

“But the long-term picture is far less certain. The ultimate impact will depend heavily on whether people stay on the drugs consistently and for how long — and we simply don’t know that yet.”

For all the possible economic outcomes of GLP-1s, questions nevertheless remain about the societal implications of a drug with such a visible physical marker.

While treatment has rolled out rapidly in just a short number of years, accessibility remains limited even in developed countries, with many national health systems restricting covered access to patients with extreme obesity and associated health conditions. Meantime, take up has surged among paid customers who are willing — and able — to fork out personally for the drug.

“We know that there are huge social determinants of health and that obesity is higher in areas of lower income,” said Dix, who commended public health bodies’ adoption of the drugs but lamented their often “woefully slow” rollout.

“This creates the risk of a two tier society in which only those that can afford it can access these life-changing medications.”

Drug makers have already gone some way in reducing prices, with that trend set to continue amid policy changes, including President Donald Trump’s U.S. drug pricing order, and increased market competition. Still, with protracted use of the drugs set to weigh on public and personal purse strings, analysts warn that policymakers must be mindful of exacerbating socioeconomic divisions.

“If rich people get a pharmaceutical which makes them skinny, then the already evident inequality in terms of weight — which is already highly correlated with income and education — further intensifies,” Janssen said.

“That is something which for sure would have a negative impact on broader society,” he added.