Plane crash probe in Kazakhstan underway as speculation mounts about cause

Azerbaijan on Thursday observed a nationwide day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash that killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured as speculation mounted about a possible cause of the disaster.

Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was en route from Azerbaijan’s capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons still unclear and crashed while trying to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the Caspian Sea.

The plane went down about 2 miles from Aktau. Cellphone footage circulating online appeared to show the aircraft making a steep descent before smashing into the ground in a fireball. Other footage showed part of its fuselage ripped away from the wings and the rest of the aircraft lying upside in the grass.

On Thursday, national flags were lowered across Azerbaijan, traffic across the country stopped at noon and signals were sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide moment of silence.

Speaking at a news conference Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said it was too soon to speculate on the reasons behind the crash but said the weather had forced the plane to change from its planned course.

“The information provided to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions and headed to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.

Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, said preliminary information indicated that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.

As the official crash investigation started, theories abounded about a possible cause, with some commentators alleging that holes seen in the plane’s tail section possibly indicate it could have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.

Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. Some Russian media claimed there was another drone attack on Chechnya Wednesday, though it wasn’t officially confirmed.

Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for carriers still flying into Russia after Western airlines halted their flights during the war in Ukraine.

Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.

“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in a way that could have been avoided.”

Russian military expert Yury Podolyaka was citged by Agence France-Presse as saying holes seen in the plane’s wreckage were similar to those an “anti-aircraft missile system” would leave. “Everything points to that,” he wrote.

And Gerard Legauffre, a former expert at France’s BEA air accident investigation agency, also said there appeared to be “a lot of shrapnel” damage to the wreckage, according to AFP.

He depicted it as “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17, which was downed with a surface-to-air missile by Russia-backed rebels over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

But when asked about the claims that the plane had been fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “It would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”

Kazakhstan’s parliamentary Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev also warned against rushing to conclusions based on pictures of the plane’s fragments, describing the allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and “unethical.”

Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have similarly avoided comment on a possible cause of the crash, saying it will be up to investigators to determine.