Markets hope Ukraine war could end. Experts say there’s no ‘quick fix’

Global markets were on tenterhooks Monday as momentum to end the war in Ukraine appeared to be ramping up, with European leaders heading to Washington for more talks with U.S. President Donald Trump on ending the war in Ukraine.

European markets traded mixed ahead of the summit later today at the White House, which follows Trump’s high-profile meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, while U.S. stock futures had moved lower. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific indices overnight traded mostly higher in anticipation of the talks.

Traders will be hoping that an end to the Russia-Ukraine war — a conflict which began in 2022 and which has shaken the global economy, disrupting trade and supply chains, and creating geopolitical chasms between major economies in the West and East — could be nearer now than at any other time.

But those in the know say fledgling talks between stakeholders Russia, Ukraine, Europe and the U.S. are just the beginning of what could be a long and thorny path to a ceasefire — as Trump’s inconclusive talks with Putin on Friday proved — let alone peace.

That would be in stark contrast to Trump’s well-documented love of a quick deal, and should be a wake-up call for global market optimism, experts say.

“Peace agreements take a very, very long time to achieve,” James Bindenagel, visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund and former U.S. ambassador to Germany, told CNBC Monday.

“And what Putin has said is that he wants peace talks so he can continue the war, knowing that it won’t come to a peace agreement for a very long time. That is simply not acceptable,” he said.

“You cannot negotiate on a peace agreement for five years, ten years, and let the Russians continue their war against the Ukrainians.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO chief Mark Rutte, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are among the European leaders traveling to Washington for talks on Monday.

They’re accompanying Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss Ukraine’s future and possible conditions for a peace deal, including land swaps (reportedly proposed by Putin) and security guarantees — all seen as crucial by Europe, if there is to be a ceasefire and peace. Trump has ruled out the possibility of Ukraine regaining control of Crimea, which Russia invaded in 2014, and joining NATO.

Zelenskyy is likely to come under pressure to enter a deal. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said the Ukrainian president could “end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight.”

The meeting follows Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, but the talks concluded without a ceasefire. It’s been widely reported since then that Putin told Trump that he would agree to one, if Russia was handed Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

The view from Ukraine is not optimistic, considering that Putin had already rejected the offer of a ceasefire that could form the basis of peace negotiations. “To achieve a big peace deal is much more difficult,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, told CNBC on Monday.

“It’s a difficult question with big details and it will take a lot of time,” he told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition.”

European defense stocks were in focus Monday, with traders betting on a positive outlook for the sector whatever the outcome of talks as European leaders have pledged to increase defense spending.

On Monday, Germany’s Rheinmetall was up 2.8%, while Hensoldt and Renk were also around 4% higher, respectively. Italian firm Leonardo was up 2.1% in early deals while London-listed BAE Systems also traded 2.3% higher and Babcock 3.4% higher.

“This is the beginning of a long negotiation,” Olivia Allison, senior advisor at PRISM Strategic Intelligence, told CNBC Monday. “Anyone looking for a quick fix will be disappointed,” she noted.

“Regardless of the outcome … there will be an emphasis on defense, on protecting critical national infrastructure, and I think the markets should also take that into account,” she noted.

“A peace deal, which I think will be a long process, is not an end to the relationship between Russia and Europe.”