BJP is gaining prominence, criminal cases run deep

The battle for 243 assembly seats, with 122 needed to form a government, is being shaped by shifting coalitions, caste equations, criminal taint among candidates, and the growing clout of women voters.

A key question this time: will the entry of political strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party alter the electoral calculus? And, perhaps most crucially, can Nitish Kumar’s two-decade-long run at the helm endure another term?

Power equation

For nearly two decades, the power dynamics within Bihar’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) told a familiar story: the Janata Dal (United) led, while the Bharatiya Janata Party followed, barring two periods with a cumulative three years when the former teamed up with the alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

The 2025 election marked a crucial turning point in JD(U)’s political prowess in the state, with the BJP rising to an equal footing. Both parties are contesting 101 seats each, with remaining seats being contested by other parties in the NDA alliance.

This came against the backdrop of the BJP winning more seats than JD(U) in 2020 polls. The shift in BJP’s growing dominance has been gradual—in 2005 and 2010, JD(U) contested nearly 50 more seats than the BJP, firmly establishing itself as the dominant partner. This arrangement persisted, with the exception of 2015, when Nitish Kumar joined the Mahagathbandhan. The striking shift came in 2020 when the BJP contested only five less seats than JD(U) and won two-thirds of the seats.

Crime card

The intersection of crime and politics remains a persistent concern in India and in Bihar. Though ‘Jungleraj’, alluding to high criminality, is often referred to RJD’s rule, nearly all parties in the state have poor track record of candidates and sitting Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs).

Of the 1,303 candidates contesting across 121 seats in the first phase, 354 (27%) had declared serious criminal cases against them at the time of filing nominations, according to data from the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR).

These serious offences, carrying punishment of five years or more, include assault, murder, kidnapping, rape, and crimes against women and children.

The RJD showed the highest proportion, with 42 out of 70 candidates (60%) facing such charges. The BJP had 27 out of 48 candidates (56%), the INC had 12 out of 23 (52%), while the newly-formed Jan Suraaj Party had 49 out of 114 candidates (43%). Among major players, the JD(U) had the least, only 15 out of 57 candidates (26%) with serious criminal cases.

Among sitting MLAs, the picture is no better — nearly half (49%) of Bihar’s 241 legislators face serious criminal charges.

Gender paradox

Women have emerged as one of Bihar’s most influential voter blocs, a trend reinforced by welfare and cash-transfer schemes aimed at them. The outmigration of men for work has also amplified women’s electoral presence.

Their voter turnout has consistently surpassed that of men in the last three elections—and by a wide margin. In 2010, women’s turnout was 54.5% compared to 51.5% for men. By 2015, this gap widened to 60.5% for women against 53.3% for men. Even in 2020, when male turnout increased to 54.5%, women maintained a robust 59.7%.

However, this electoral strength has not translated into political representation. Women’s representation in the assembly declined from 14% in 2010 to just 10.7% in 2020.

Data from ADR also shows that women comprise only about 9% of candidates contesting in the first phase of the 2025 elections. While this is a persistent trend across states, Bihar remains among 10 states with highest women representation.