In Asia Cup 2025, India have already secured a place in the Super 4 in Group A, with two wins from two games. Pakistan, on the other hand, have one win and one loss, which puts them on two points. The UAE also sit on two points after their two games. Oman, with two losses, are already out of the race.
Can Pakistan qualify?
The situation for Pakistan is very clear. Their next match against the UAE will decide everything. If Pakistan beat the UAE, they will move to four points, which will guarantee qualification along with India.
The UAE would then remain on two points, and Oman have no points. So, there would be no chance for any other team to catch up. Net run rate would not matter in this case.
If Pakistan lose to the UAE, things turn against them immediately. The UAE would reach four points, joining India at the top. Even if India somehow slip against Oman, Pakistan would still remain at two points and finish third. They will be eliminated in that case.
Pakistan’s chances of making it to the Super 4 are still alive. However, it all depends on this one crucial game. It is a straight do-or-die situation. A win takes them through, a loss knocks them out.
Pakistan will take on the UAE in Asia Cup 2025 today, September 17. The match starts at 8 PM (India time).
Does net run rate matter?
At the moment, Pakistan’s path is very straightforward: beat the UAE and qualify. Lose, and go out. However, if there is a washout, net run rate (NRR) can come into play.
If rain washes out Pakistan’s match against the UAE, both teams would get one point each, leaving the UAE and Pakistan with three points.
In this case, the second spot in Group A would be decided by NRR. Pakistan currently have a healthy NRR of +1.649 while the UAE sit at –2.030.
This gives Pakistan a big advantage. They will qualify for the Super 4 based on their stronger NRR. Anyway, there’s little chance of rain in Dubai today.
Who’ll qualify in Group B?
Group B is a little tighter than Group A, but the situation is still quite clear after the results so far.
Sri Lanka have been excellent, winning both their matches. With four points and a strong net run rate of +1.546, they are already through to the Super 4.
Bangladesh, despite playing one extra game, also have four points from three matches. Their net run rate is slightly negative, at –0.270. But, those two wins are enough to keep them in contention.
Afghanistan sit in third place with two points from two games. They still have one match left to play, against Sri Lanka. If they win, they will reach four points.
That would put them level with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which means NRR will decide the top two. Afghanistan’s current NRR of +2.150 is the best in the group, so a win could push them into the Super 4 at Bangladesh’s expense.
Hong Kong have already been eliminated. They have played all three matches and lost all, finishing with zero points.
Sri Lanka and Afghanistan will take on each other in Asia Cup 2025 tomorrow, September 18. The match starts at 8 PM (India time).
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