MLB 2025 playoff race: Standings, AI projection, and other insights as regular season nears end

The 2025 MLB regular season has entered its final month, and the playoff picture is taking shape, with some teams cementing their positions while others are fighting for survival. Intense battles are on the line for division titles and wild-card spots, with the postseason looming on September 30.

Division Races: Who is leading?

Several divisions are nearly decided, while others remain up for grabs:

AL Central: The Detroit Tigers (81-60) have dominated, with a good chance of clinching the division. Moreover they have a favourable remaining schedule.

NL East: The Philadelphia Phillies (81-59) lead the New York Mets by six games, positioning them for a bye. The Mets could however, overtake them.

NL Central: The Milwaukee Brewers (86-55) hold a 5.5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs, their strong roster making them favourites.

AL West: The Houston Astros (77-64) lead the Seattle Mariners (73-67) by 3.5 games. A key three-game series in mid-September could decide the division.

NL West: The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-62) are two games ahead of the San Diego Padres (76-64), strengthened by stars like Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts.

AL East: The Toronto Blue Jays’ (81-59) lead is shrinking, with the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox within 3.5 games, setting up a dramatic finish.

Wild card races

The wild card races are fiercely competitive:

In the AL, the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mariners hold the current spots, but the Tampa Bay Rays (71-69) and Texas Rangers are in the mix.

In the NL, the Cubs, Padres, and Mets occupy wild card positions, with the Cincinnati Reds, led by Elly De La Cruz and manager Terry Francona, close behind.

Playoff projections by AI

According to Grok, the Dodgers hold a 25% chance of winning the World Series, factoring in their elite pitching and offensive depth, despite injury concerns. The Yankees (10%) and Phillies (8%) follow, with the Tigers’ favorable schedule boosting their chances for a top AL seed (95% playoff probability). The Mets’ recent surge, driven by Juan Soto, gives them a 75% chance of securing a wild card spot, though their pitching health remains a variable. The Astros-Mariners AL West race is a coin flip, with a 52% chance for Houston to clinch.

What to watch in the final weeks?

With less than a month left, every game matters. The AL East, AL West, and NL West races, along with wild card battles, will keep fans glued to the action.

Key series, like Astros vs. Mariners, could shift the playoff picture. The postseason’s unpredictability adds excitement, as teams like the Phillies, with a strong rotation led by Zack Wheeler, could challenge the Dodgers in October.