Global smartphone sales to grow just 0.6% this year as tariff threats loom: IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) has cut down its global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 0.6% from 2.3% citing high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges like inflation and unemployment across various regions. IDC further predicts that growth will remain in the low single digits throughout the forecast period and a five year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% owing to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones.

Speaking about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s so called reciprocal tariffs on the smartphone industry, Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, said, “Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” 

“Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts. Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on US bound smartphones could post a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.” Popal added.

Amid the rising trade tensions between US and China, Apple had planned to increase its reliance on India by doubling down on its iPhone manufacturing in the country and producing all the US bound iPhones this year in India. However, earlier this month, President Trump toldApple CEO Tim Cook that he doesn’t want Apple to make iPhones in India and any iPhones not made in the US would be subject to a 25% tariff. 

However, US and China are still expected to have a modest growth of 0.6% in smartphone shipments this year. China’s smartphone market is forecast to grow 3% YoY driven by government subsidies on Android devices. Meanwhile, Apple could be the biggest loser of the geopolitical tensions with a 1.9% decline in 2025 amid ongoing competition frm Huawei and overall economic slowdown.