The Vikings shocked the NFL. Here’s how insiders would solve the Darnold dilemma: Sando’s Pick Six

The next two weeks will reveal plenty about what the future holds for the Minnesota Vikings and Sam Darnold.

On this Week 16 Sunday, in the moments after Darnold maneuvered through the Seattle Seahawks’ pass rush to deliver the winning 39-yard touchdown strike to Justin Jefferson, those looming games against the 10-4 Green Bay Packers and 13-2 Detroit Lions could wait.

“Sam Darnold will be a Viking next year unless he bombs in the playoffs,” read the text from a veteran NFL player agent.

This impromptu conversation quickly grew to include NFL coaches and executives as the Vikings notched their eighth consecutive victory, 27-24, in running their record to an improbable 13-2.

Only the 1999 Kurt Warner-led St. Louis Rams have exceeded expectations through 15 games to a greater degree than these Vikings over the past 36 seasons, according to historic Vegas preseason win totals.

Those Rams, like these Vikings, had lost their franchise quarterback to a season-ending knee injury in preseason. They later traded their starter, Trent Green, after Warner led them to Super Bowl glory.

The Vikings are not there yet, but how they proceed with Darnold — who is on a one-year contract — and injured rookie first-round pick J.J. McCarthy got a little more fascinating after Darnold sliced that fourth-quarter pass through Seattle’s coverage a half-tick before pass rusher Dre’Mont Jones blasted him.

This Darnold to Jefferson connection is too clean.

📺: #MINvsSEA on FOX
📱: pic.twitter.com/xHhVDimIM2

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

The Pick Six column shares thoughts and ideas from the agent, personnel and coaching worlds in handicapping where the biggest surprise story of the season goes from here. The full menu:

• Sorting through Vikings’ dynamics
• Not open-heart surgery for Mahomes
• How worried should Steelers be?
• Rams: Most physical team in division
• Lions’ injuries simply bad luck?
• 2-minute drill: Penix’s strong debut

1. The Vikings aren’t just the most surprising team this season. They’re among the most surprising teams of the past 36 seasons. That will have implications for their QB (and their head coach).

The Vikings have already exceeded their Vegas preseason win total (6.5) by 6.5. That is tied for the second-best differential among 1,711 teams through 15 games since 1989, according to Pro Football Reference.

Multiple other teams in the top 10 over this 36-year period also enjoyed quarterback awakenings, sometimes leading to dilemmas.

Beyond the 1999 Rams, there were the 2004 San Diego Chargers, who got a breakout season from Drew Brees and stuck with him another year, despite having used a top-five pick to acquire Philip Rivers in 2004. There were standout rookies on the list, from 2004 Ben Roethlisberger to 2008 Matt Ryan, plus a 1999 Peyton Manning in his second season.

The 1998 Vikings with Randall Cunningham are there. They drafted Daunte Culpepper in the 1999 first round, moving on from Cunningham a year later.

Cunningham was turning 36. Darnold, who is scheduled to hit free agency in March, turns 28 in June. His 32 touchdown passes rank fifth in the league. He ranks fourth in passer rating (105.4) behind Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. His 45 sacks taken explains why he ranks lower (14th) in EPA per pass play. He’s tied with Patrick Mahomes for fifth in NFL MVP odds (+10000), per BetMGM.

Against that backdrop, we pick up the conversation with league insiders.

Exec No. 1: “This season has proved Sam needs Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, (T.J.) Hockenson, one of the grittiest offensive lines and a top back in Aaron Jones. If you are Minnesota, you wave goodbye to Sam, wish him luck and hope he signs for $50 million with some team that thinks they are a quarterback away, but doesn’t have all those things Minnesota has. You get the premium comp pick, you found your next Sam Darnold in Daniel Jones and you already have your draft pick (McCarthy) ready to go. That is what a smart organization does.”

Exec No. 2: “I agree, except for the Daniel Jones piece. Jones isn’t a real option.”

Exec No. 3: “What if they just franchise-tagged Darnold, which then keeps McCarthy in play for the future?”

Agent: “They can afford that. What they can’t afford is turning it over to a rookie coming off a season-ending injury. The only Darnold caveat at this point is the playoffs.”

Could there be a compromise solution?

The 2011 49ers (7.5 preseason Vegas win total) went 13-3 and reached the NFC Championship Game with a reborn Alex Smith behind center. They had used a 2011 second-round pick on Colin Kaepernick but were in no rush to play him. Smith, then 27, had bonded with new coach Jim Harbaugh after struggling under different coaches for years. He wanted to stay, but the 49ers weren’t interested in a market-setting extension.

San Francisco let Smith test the market at a time when Peyton Manning was the most coveted free agent in years (and Harbaugh met with Manning covertly before the QB signed with Denver). Smith didn’t find what he was looking for elsewhere. He re-signed with the 49ers on a deal with the No. 20 annual average among quarterbacks, got hurt midway through the next season, watched Kaepernick start in the Super Bowl and was soon traded to Kansas City.

Exec No. 2: “To get a compromise deal from Darnold, the Vikings have to be willing to let him hit the market.”

Agent: “That’s the last thing Minnesota should do. Too many teams need QBs.”

Exec No. 2: “It’s really not that scary. Some teams are picking high and will draft QBs. Some won’t be able to afford it. Tennessee could be interesting.”

Coach: “If I’m Darnold and the Vikings move on from me, whatever Brock Purdy wants from the 49ers, I want less. If he says to San Francisco, ‘I’ll be your starting quarterback for $15 million a year or whatever and Brock Purdy is asking for $45 million, how does San Francisco sit there and say Brock Purdy is the guy they are going with?”

Exec No. 2: “What is the difference between Darnold and Baker Mayfield? That should be instructive for his market.”

Mayfield re-signed with Tampa Bay for $33 million per year, which ranks 18th among quarterback averages. He knew the Buccaneers did not have his replacement lined up. He knew Tampa Bay was interested in re-signing him. Darnold’s market could suffer if the Vikings like McCarthy enough to move forward with the Michigan product, which was always their plan anyway.

What’s the requirements for this Coach of The Year thing again? Asking for a friend

— J.J. McCarthy (@jjmccarthy09) December 23, 2024

There are other fascinating implications for this breakout Vikings season. Coach Kevin O’Connell has no contract beyond the 2025 season. His star is growing with every successful start from Darnold. He’ll likely drive whatever quarterback decision the Vikings make. He only figures to gain influence within the organization if he continues to stack the victories. He’s already the first coach in Vikings history with two 13-win seasons.

But first, the playoffs. Minnesota can secure the top seed in the NFC and the conference’s only bye by winning its final two games against Green Bay (at home) and Detroit (on the road). The Athletic’s projection model puts the Vikings’ chances at 28 percent, behind the Lions (66 percent) and ahead of the Eagles (6 percent).

Of course, that same model projected a 7-10 record for the Vikings entering the season, with a 17 percent shot at the playoffs and a less than 1 percent likelihood of securing the NFC’s top seed.

That was then. This is now.

We opened this discussion with a look at the teams since 1989 that outperformed their preseason expectations by the widest margins to this point in a season. We now circle back to see how those teams fared in the playoffs.

Six of these extreme overachievers were 13-2 or better, just like the current Vikings. Three reached the Super Bowl (the 1999 Rams won it, while the 1998 Falcons and 2015 Panthers fell short). The 2004 Steelers and (gulp) 1998 Vikings reached conference title games. Only the 1999 Colts and 2004 Chargers failed to advance in the playoffs.

Pretty good company, all things considered.

2. Patrick Mahomes was not coming off open-heart surgery, but let’s not miss the message.

Mahomes’ performance against Houston recalled the time in the playoffs after the 2017 season when Tom Brady led New England past Jacksonville after suffering a lacerated throwing hand in practice.

That New England game, complete with a fourth-quarter comeback from a 10-point deficit, produced a classic postgame exchange between reporters and Patriots coach Bill Belichick.

“Bill, did anything have to change game-plan-wise because of Brady’s hand?” one reporter asked.

Belichick stared and said nothing.

“Not that I’m aware of,” he finally answered.

Bill Belichick on Tom Brady: “He’s a tough guy, we all know that. But we’re not talking about open heart surgery here” pic.twitter.com/omGoydmIgy

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 22, 2018

Belichick was then asked to comment on Brady’s resourcefulness.

“Look, Tom did a great job and he’s a tough guy,” Belichick said. “We all know that. All right. But we’re not talking about open-heart surgery here.”

Some might have taken the comments to be a slap at Brady, but the strategy was more likely to normalize playing well despite injuries.

That’s where the Mahomes parallel comes in. He’s normalizing a standard every coach hopes every player will uphold.

“It’s so not in fashion to write about how tough Mahomes is, when that is the most outstanding part about his game,” an exec from another team said. “We want to naysay and talk about how (Travis) Kelce is slowing and they are not as explosive. Mahomes is out there playing when two-thirds of the quarterbacks would not, and 90 percent of the wideouts would not. TV shows an image of his foot: He has like 17 layers of tape on it.”

Mahomes, who did not finish the game against Cleveland last week after suffering the injury shown in this video, rushed for 27 yards and a touchdown on the Chiefs’ first possession against Houston, the second-most yards on an opening drive in his career. Reid went further than Belichick would have in acknowledging the feat, even if Mahomes, like Brady, was not coming off open-heart surgery.

“He spoils the dog out of us there because he’s so tough mentally and physically,” Reid said. “You just get used to it. Most guys don’t come back from that like he did, but he set his mind to it and he jumped in that training room and stayed in there. Most guys don’t do that. It sends a message to the whole team, and our guys are real good with it. Our leaders are good in that way. They try to play through things.”

3. The Steelers have lost three of their past five and are slumping on offense. Here’s why I’m not too worried.

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin pointed to ineffective run defense and killer turnovers in explaining his team’s 34-17 defeat to the Ravens. The diagnosis seemed accurate. It did not seem foreboding.

• The run defense shouldn’t be too concerning because the Ravens are so good on the ground.

Excluding kneeldown plays, Baltimore is the only team to rush for at least 100 yards in every game this season. The Ravens are one of eight teams since 2000 to hit that mark in the first 15 games of a season, joining a list that also includes the 2019, 2020 and 2023 Ravens. The Eagles had a 14-game streak to start this season until the Steelers held them under 100 in Week 15.

• The two killer turnovers Tomlin mentioned cost the Steelers 12.0 EPA, accounting for most of the final score differential. The fumble Russell Wilson lost after a 19-yard scramble to the Baltimore 4-yard line came with the score tied in the second quarter. The pick six Wilson threw early in the fourth doubled the Ravens’ lead to 14 points.

These had the feel of one-off plays, but this was also the third consecutive game Pittsburgh finished with -10.0 EPA or worse on offense. The Steelers haven’t had a longer streak within a season since 2003, per TruMedia.

Wasn’t this offense supposed to be better with Wilson replacing Justin Fields?

The Steelers’ formula for winning — play good defense, run the ball, protect the ball and hit explosive downfield plays in the passing game — seems broken with No. 1 receiver George Pickens sidelined for the past three games. Pittsburgh is 8-1 this season when Pickens has at least 50 yards, which is average production for a starting receiver. The Steelers are 2-4 otherwise.

Wilson’s numbers with and without Pickens on the field seem striking.

Wilson’s EPA per play splits with and without Pickens widen further when removing drives that ended in fumbles and/or interceptions. This suggests the numbers in the chart do not simply reflect a couple of costly turnover plays that happened when Pickens was not available.

How quickly and how well Pickens returns from his hamstring injury — Tomlin has left the door open for him to play Wednesday against the Chiefs — appears to be the key variable for Wilson and the Steelers.

4. The Rams have recast themselves as a physical football team. That’s their edge in the NFC West.

The Rams are 8-2 in their past 10 games and in firm control of the NFC West after beating the New York Jets 19-9 and watching the Seahawks lose to the Vikings.

Not quite two weeks ago, after the Rams outlasted the San Francisco 49ers in an ugly slog played in rainy conditions, an executive from another team made an observation: The Rams had surpassed the 49ers as the most physical team in the NFC West. Injuries to Trent Williams and some other 49ers contributed to the change, but not as much as the overhaul Sean McVay’s team has been implementing over the past couple of seasons.

🚨 Kevin Dotson coming thru 🚨 pic.twitter.com/JmWA35Rm5S

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 13, 2024

The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue detailed schematic changes the Rams have made in evolving their run game away from zone concepts to a more physical, attacking style. Adding offensive linemen in the mold of Kevin Dotson and Steve Avila has facilitated the change. Puka Nacua is one of the NFL’s more physical receivers. Running back Kyren Williams is like a boxer who punches above his weight class.

“I give the Rams credit because they were soft and they knew it, and they identified a couple things, and now they have become a grittier team than the 49ers,” the exec said.

The Rams have gone under center more than any other team in the NFC West. They are more run-oriented than any team in the division (48 percent pass on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before time remaining and score differential exert more influence on playcalling). They use the lowest rate of five-man pass protections in the division. All of these things reflect an orientation.

Adding 2024 draft picks Jared Verse and Braden Fiske to the defensive front seven has affected that side of the ball as well.

“You look at how Detroit wins on the line of scrimmage, how Minnesota wins on the line of scrimmage, how Green Bay wins on the line of scrimmage,” a coach from a Rams opponent said. “They are much in the same vein, where Verse is having a Defensive Rookie of the Year type season, and Fiske is in the mix as well. They are a physical team on defense and the offensive line is now healthy, so it is more physical too.”

5. The Detroit Lions have suffered more injuries than any other team in the league. Will they trust their process?

Almost six years ago, after the San Francisco 49ers grew frustrated with injuries and recovery times, the team fired its trainer and strength coach, then brought in a vice president above those roles.

Forty-one players had landed on the 49ers’ injured reserve list over the previous two seasons. That 20.5 average per year is about the same as the 21.5 average for the 49ers since then, per Pro Football Reference.

One potential takeaway: Teams feel powerless when injuries mount, so they change what they can control, without affecting what happens next.

The Lions have had 26 players on injured reserve this season, counting players placed on IR during camp. They had 21 players on IR entering Week 16, which did not count running back David Montgomery, whose knee injury could sideline him through the playoffs. The 22 players Detroit had on IR or listed as “out” entering Week 16 was a league high.

Number of players on IR/PUP/OUT for each #NFL team. pic.twitter.com/QSJjur1Oak

— Tyler Webb (@tylermwebb) December 18, 2024

Are the Lions doing something wrong? The answer appears to be no, after reviewing their injuries on video with a coach experienced in such analysis.

We did not review injuries to Ennis Rakestraw Jr., John Cominsky, Michael Badgley or Netane Muti because those occurred in practices, so video was not available.

Of the 17 other players on IR recently, only defensive lineman David Bada suffered the sort of non-contact injury that, if it were to occur in large numbers, tends to set off alarms. In five cases, the coach reviewing these plays on video thought the injured player could have used better technique to reduce injury risk.

While 14 of the 17 Lions players injured in games were hurt on artificial turf — including four during a preseason visit to the New York Giants, whose turf has come under criticism — playing surfaces did not appear pivotal.

We placed the 17 injuries into the following buckets:

• Non-contact (1): Bada, released Saturday with an injury settlement, suffered a torn Achilles at MetLife Stadium after turning and running at low speed.

• Knee injuries, good technique (2): offensive tackle Connor Galvin, who was blocking against the Giants when other players fell into his legs; and defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo, whose foot skidded on the Lions’ home turf against Chicago while he was engaged with another very large man.

• Knee/leg injuries, questionable technique (4): defensive tackle Alim McNeil, who jumped at an angle while attempting to hit Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s arm and landed awkwardly; linebacker Derrick Barnes, who took a hard hit to the legs from Arizona tight end Tip Reiman (the coach faulted the techniques of both players, with Barnes failing to recognize cues that Reiman was blocking low); linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez, who was holding in coverage when he turned and was hurt; and cornerback Khalil Dorsey, injured while colliding with a Bills player and his own teammate, Ezekiel Turner, after not seeing either.

• Upper-body injuries, questionable technique (1): defensive tackle Kyle Peko suffered a pectoral injury while reaching instead of continuing to run his feet toward his target.

• Other injuries suffered during collisions, usually at high speed (9): Ifeatu Melifonwu (ankle), Kalif Raymond (foot), Aidan Hutchinson (leg), Alex Anzalone (arm), Antoine Green (concussion), Carlton Davis (jaw), Jalen Reeves-Maybin (neck), Marcus Davenport (triceps) and Nate Lynn (shoulder).

Fourteen of the 17 players come from the defense. Age doesn’t appear key. The Lions entered Week 16 with the NFL’s fourth-oldest offense and third-youngest defense, weighted for playing time. The 17 injured players average 26 years old. Nine are younger than 25. Three — Raymond (30), Anzalone (30) and Peko (31) — are 30 or older.

Will the Lions feel compelled to do something? Will they trust their processes, the way coach Dan Campbell has said he’ll do with his fourth-down decision-making, regardless of results?

6. Two-minute drill: Michael Penix Jr. had a lousy passer rating in his debut start for the Falcons, but don’t be fooled.

The second-quarter pass from Falcons rookie Michael Penix to tight end Kyle Pitts should have produced a third-down conversion in the red zone. Instead, Pitts failed to secure the ball, which flew forward from the 3-yard line into the end zone, where the Giants’ Cor’Dale Flott intercepted it.

Juggled and picked off by the Giants at the goal line!

📺: #NYGvsATL on FOX
📱: pic.twitter.com/PdRfXIGHCa

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024

The bizarre play contributed to a misleading stat line for Penix in his first start since the Falcons benched Kirk Cousins: 18 of 27 for 202 yards with no touchdowns, the one interception and a 73.4 passer rating.

The Falcons ran away with a 34-7 victory anyway because their defense collected two pick sixes off Drew Lock, and partly because Penix sustained drives with his best work on third down.

Penix’s top five EPA plays were all conversions on third-and-6 or longer. He threw the ball past the first-down marker on four of the five plays, splitting those completions between Drake London and Darnell Mooney. Even with the unlucky interception, the Falcons enjoyed a 50 percent success rate on third-down passes, matching their highest rate of the season.

• Lions having fun: With bad news on the injury front threatening to become the Lions’ narrative in recent weeks, the comical trick-play concept Detroit unleashed on the Chicago Bears showed this team is still prioritizing fun.

Worked like a charm 😉

JG on the fake-fumble trick play TD to Sam LaPorta pic.twitter.com/wau30iGvEM

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 22, 2024

Quarterback Jared Goff tripped on purpose as he retreated from center, pretending to fumble. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs dove to the ground as if trying to recover a loose ball. Multiple teammates were heard shouting, “Fumble!” Chicago’s defenders moved forward. Goff gathered himself and threw a touchdown pass to an open Sam LaPorta.

The ole stumblebum 🤣#ProBowlVote | @JaredGoff16 pic.twitter.com/zdHiS7M2Hy

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 22, 2024

The funniest part was that the Lions probably did not even need the fake action for this play to succeed. But it was lots more fun this way.

• Colts meet Lone Star Dietz: In 1933, when the Lone Star Dietz-coached Boston Redskins faced the New York Giants at Fenway Park, a crowd listed at 15,000 witnessed the home team rush for 420 yards while completing only two passes in a 21-20 victory.

That was the first time in league history that a team rushed for at least 335 yards while completing seven or fewer passes in an NFL game, per Pro Football Reference. It would happen seven more times in the 1930s, seven times in the 1940s and three times in the 1950s before a shift toward the modern passing game made such games exceedingly rare. There were none in the 1960s, three in the 1970s and, before the Indianapolis Colts took the field Sunday, none since Cincinnati (2000) and Baltimore (2003) pulled off the old-school feat more than two decades ago.

The Colts turned back the calendar in their 38-30 victory over the Tennessee Titans in Week 16. With Jonathan Taylor rushing for 218 of the Colts’ 335 yards on the ground, and with Anthony Richardson completing 7 of 11 passes for 131 yards, Indy prevailed. It got 70 yards rushing from Richardson and picked off Titans quarterback Mason Rudolph three times.

• About those in-season changes: The New York Jets are 2-8 and rank 32nd in defensive EPA per play since firing defensive-minded coach Robert Saleh. The Chicago Bears are 0-3 and rank 32nd in defensive EPA per play since firing their defensive-minded coach, Matt Eberflus. The other team to fire its (defensive-minded) coach during the season, New Orleans, has gone 3-2 since parting with Dennis Allen, albeit with victories against two teams that have subsequently benched their quarterbacks (Atlanta, Cleveland) and the Giants, who benched and cut their QB previously.

• New Commanders karma: What would have seemed less likely for Washington? Keeping alive D.C. stadium plans amid the threat of a government shutdown, or beating the previously 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles in a game featuring five Commanders turnovers and a 13-point deficit entering the fourth quarter?

Washington pulled off the parlay with its 10th win under first-year coach Dan Quinn, only the fourth time in 33 seasons this franchise has cracked double-digit victories in a season. Mike Shanahan, Joe Gibbs and Norv Turner each managed the feat once during Dan Snyder’s ownership. It’s a new day now.

JAMISONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

📺 #PHIvsWAS FOX pic.twitter.com/k718liTMwK

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) December 22, 2024

Washington’s ability to stack these moments almost from the start of the season, first in that memorable 38-33 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, feels restorative even if the Commanders were sloppy and probably would have lost this game Sunday if Philly hadn’t played most of it without injured quarterback Jalen Hurts.

One week after Philadelphia held Pittsburgh to 5:50 of second-half possession time, the Eagles limited Washington’s time with the ball to 16 seconds of the third quarter. Philly took a 27-14 lead into the fourth and became only the 16th team since 2000 (and the first Eagles team) to blow a 13-point lead through three quarters and lose. Teams are now 230-16-2 (.931) since 2000 when leading by exactly 13 entering the fourth quarter.

Jayden Daniels’ five touchdown passes, including the game-winner to Jamison Crowder, reinforces his spot as a prohibitive favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

• MVP race: Speaking of honors, let’s close with an updated look at our MVP odds-to-EPA chart. Lamar Jackson closed ground on Josh Allen after tossing three touchdown passes for the Ravens in their victory over the Steelers. Allen’s Buffalo Bills barely beat New England on a day when Allen averaged 5.3 yards per attempt, his second-lowest in a game this season. Both quarterbacks got touchdowns from their teams’ defenses and 100-yard rushing games from their top backs to help them win.

(Photo: Christopher Mast / Getty Images)