Disarming Hezbollah, Palestinian factions -– Lebanon’s chance to reclaim sovereignty

BEIRUT, Lebanon, April 28 (UPI) — Lebanon, shattered by five decades of lawlessness, military occupation and the dominance of armed non-state actors, now has a chance to reclaim its long-lost sovereignty — if it can overcome the final hurdles: disarming Hezbollah and the Palestinian armed factions.

However, the country’s new leaders must walk a tightrope to accomplish a long-awaited mission — one that seemed inconceivable just months ago.

The once-powerful Hezbollah has been significantly weakened by Israel, which has assassinated many of its top leaders and military commanders, destroyed much of its arsenal, and forced the group to retreat from the embattled southern region during a recent destructive war.

Its patron, Iran, also has seen a sharp decline in influence, losing much of its strength, its “axis of resistance” and its dominant regional role.

The Palestinian armed factions, including Hamas, are in no better position. The Gaza war has left them in disarray, with the Strip reduced to rubble and barely livable — pushing the issue of armed struggle against Israel back to the forefront, but under drastically changed conditions.

Their military presence in Lebanon was called into question years ago, but now, more than ever, following Hezbollah’s weakening and Israel’s massive destruction of south Lebanon and other areas, it can no longer be justified or tolerated.

The dramatic regional shifts and mounting international pressure have made it clear that the time has come for these groups to relinquish their weapons, whether voluntarily or by force. Yet, despite Israel’s continued use of overwhelming military power against Hezbollah and Hamas, it has failed to eliminate either.

Hezbollah remains well-armed and retains significant military capabilities, while Hamas continues to fight in Gaza and still holds the remaining Israeli captives. But both are stuck with limited options.

Aware of the challenges and risks of forcing the disarmament of Hezbollah, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the country’s former Army commander, opted for engaging the militant group in a one-to-one dialogue.

Aoun has remained firm since he was elected to the country’s top post in January on his pledge to disarm all militias and impose the state monopoly on weapons.

However, stripping Hezbollah of its arms by force is “out of question” for the president because it could lead to “a civil war, confrontation between the Army and the group or among the Lebanese,” according to a Lebanese official source.

Hezbollah’s positions and military facilities south of the Litani River in south Lebanon already are being taken by the Lebanese Army and its weapons confiscated in line with the Nov. 27 cease-fire agreement that was brokered by the United States and France to end the war with Israel.

“Instructions to the Lebanese army are clear and Hezbollah is responding. There will be no weapons except those of the army,” the source told UPI. “That’s final.”

In some cases, residents in the south have tipped off the Army about Hezbollah’s well-concealed positions. Recently, soldiers discovered a Hezbollah-operated hospital hidden inside a mountain.

However, the issue of Hezbollah’s bases north of the Litani River, where it reportedly stockpiles its long-range missiles, is more complicated.

While the cease-fire agreement stipulates that Hezbollah must be fully disarmed, the Iran-backed group has argued that the provision applies only to south Lebanon.

Recently, Hezbollah has begun signaling a willingness to discuss its weapons on the condition that Israel halts its attacks and withdraws from five strategic hilltop positions it retained after pulling out of south Lebanon following the extension of the cease-fire deadline to Feb. 18.

Hezbollah’s weapons outside the south Litani area “need a very quiet diplomacy,” said the Lebanese official source, noting that Aoun-Hezbollah dialogue hasn’t started yet, and the current efforts were limited to indirect contacts between the two sides.

“We are still in a preliminary phase, with no action plan or mechanism yet in place,” he said, noting that the main obstacle is Israel’s continued occupation of the five positions, which also prevents the Army’s full deployment, and its reluctance to also discuss 13 disputed border points.

“To be honest, how can you expect to talk to Hezbollah about disarmament while Israel continues to bombard villages, strike its positions and assassinate its field commanders on a daily basis?” the source said, asking whether Israel was not bowing to U.S. pressure to withdraw or whether Washington’s pressures are very limited.

He denied that the United States has set a deadline for Lebanon to fully disarm Hezbollah, but added, “That does not mean they will wait for us forever.”

Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, said Aoun does have a strong argument about the risks associated with the forced disarmament of Hezbollah.

“It could potentially lead to a civil war due to the religious factional composition of the country, as well as the armed forces,” Kahwaji told UPI, noting that Hezbollah does enjoy wide support among a good portion of the Shiite community in Lebanon and is still regarded as very well armed despite its losses during the war with Israel.

“The Lebanese Army can engage them [Hezbollah fighters] and could probably succeed in disarming them, but this would be at a potential heavy cost. … There will be certainly heavy bloodshed,” Kahwaji told UPI.

The risk of Hezbollah retaining its weapons or retaliating against Israel’s ongoing attacks could very likely provide Israel with a pretext to resume the war — a scenario Hezbollah may not be able to withstand and one its popular base is unlikely to tolerate.

According to Kahwaji, the group’s strategy of playing for time, in the hope that developments in Syria might reopen its supply routes from Iran and allow it to rebuild, is “illusional at this stage.”

But what should be done with Hezbollah if and when it is disarmed?

One proposal, suggested by Aoun, is to integrate its fighters individually into the Lebanese Army — much like former militias were absorbed after Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war — rather than incorporating them as a distinct unit, as Iraq did with its Popular Mobilization Units.

However, many military experts warn that this approach carries significant risks and could prove highly destabilizing.

Kahwaji explained that while Hezbollah may desire its fighters to be absorbed into the armed forces, the group most likely would want to maintain cohesion and preserve its independent leadership.

“Integrating a group that serves a religious ideology, takes orders from its own commanders and ultimately answers to Iran into a secular institution sensitive to the country’s religious and sectarian composition will be extremely difficult and highly dangerous,” he said.

Such a move would complicate Lebanon’s normalization with Syria’s new leadership that was born out of Sunni Islamic groups and most likely would be rejected by the United States., western powers and Arab Gulf countries that provide aid to the war-ravaged country.

Is it the end of the anti-Israel armed struggle? Would it be possible without a just solution to the Palestinian issue?

Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, argued that Hezbollah will realize that it is “outside the Middle East military equation,” especially since the United States and Iran “appear readying themselves for a historic agreement.”

“Hezbollah is no longer in a position to challenge Israel. It has become a sitting duck that does not answer Israeli daily air raids and assassinations,” Khashan told UPI.

The Lebanon-based Palestinian armed factions, he said, also have no choice but to lay down their arms and allow the Lebanese authorities to assume full control over 12 refugee camps in various Lebanese regions.

“Armed struggle is a thing of the past. If Hamas cannot hold its ground in Gaza, we should not expect it to hold on in Lebanon,” he added.

The Lebanese Army has begun gradually taking control of Palestinian positions outside the 12 overcrowded refugee camps, a move described by observers as “small but important steps” in Lebanon’s efforts to regain its sovereignty and authority.