Bitcoin price rises ahead of US inflation report

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose more than 2% in the past 24 hours, climbing back above $109,500 as traders position ahead of Friday’s key US inflation report.

With most official economic releases on hold amid the ongoing US government shutdown, Friday’s consumer price index (CPI) print is expected to be the only major data point guiding markets this week.

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“The only print that matters this week is Friday’s CPI, the sole release the Fed will see before policy rhetoric resumes,” analysts at QCP Capital wrote in a Thursday report.

According to QCP, a softer CPI reading could re-anchor the “soft-landing” narrative and fuel renewed upside for bitcoin (BTC-USD).

“A 0.2% CPI could re-anchor the soft-landing narrative and support bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) upside skew,” QCP said. “Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) saw its biggest one-day drop since 2020 as the US dollar firmed, while bitcoin briefly spiked to $114,000 before easing lower.”

While geopolitical tension continues to weigh on global sentiment, reports of potential trade talks between Chinese president Xi Jinping and US president Donald Trump have provided some relief to risk markets.

The two leaders are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea at the end of October, a gathering investors hope could ease recent trade and security tensions across the region.

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Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has trended lower since setting a new all-time high above $126,270 on October 6, 2025. John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, told Yahoo Finance UK that he believes the latest bull cycle has ended.

“The bull run in bitcoin (BTC-USD) is over!” Glover said. “I firmly believe that we have finished the five wave move higher, and we will now commence a bear market that will last into late 2026 at a minimum. That’s not to say that we can’t retest the $124,000, or even slightly higher, but my view is that prices in the coming months will be lower than they are today.”

Glover expects a substantial retracement before the next leg higher. “My expectation is that the bear market will see us trading down to $70,000 to $80,000, and potentially lower,” he added. “The bear market target will become clearer as we watch the price action unfold in the coming months.”

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Others, however, see potential for renewed upside once short-term selling pressure eases. According to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, bitcoin (BTC-USD) could mimic gold’s (GC=F) powerful rally earlier this year if institutional demand gains traction.

“If the current pool of sellers diminishes, allowing institutional demand to have a more impactful effect on prices, bitcoin (BTC-USD) could mirror gold’s (GC=F) 2025 rally,” Hougan wrote in a note earlier this week.

Hougan pointed to gold’s (GC=F) 57% surge in 2025 as a potential template for bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) next major move. He highlighted that central bank gold purchases have more than doubled since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war, from about 467 metric tons per year to 1,080 metric tons, citing data from Metals Focus.

“This level of buying is roughly twice the estimated demand from gold (GC=F) exchange-traded products (ETPs),” Hougan noted.

That dynamic, he argued, explains why bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) performance has lagged. “If central banks are the primary driver of gold’s (GC=F) rally, it makes sense that bitcoin is not following gold higher,” Hougan said.

Despite robust demand from US spot bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETFs and corporate buyers, Hougan noted that caution continues to cap rallies.

“Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has yet to rally to $200,000 despite strong buying pressure from US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporations because price-sensitive investors continue to sell upon every 10%-15% price change,” he added.

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