Canada Election on April 28: Mark Carney vs Pierre Poilievre — What’s at stake?

Canadians will head to the polls on April 28 to decide who will form the next government. With the departure of long-time Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the two main contenders for the role are Mark Carney from the Liberal Party and Pierre Poilievre from the Conservative Party.

Carney currently holds a slight lead in the polls, but the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has been narrowing the gap in recent days.

Trudeau’s resignation

In January, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation after nearly a decade as Canada’s prime minister. His decision came after growing party infighting and his personal unpopularity, which made him vulnerable to criticism.

Trudeau’s resignation came amid deep anxiety prompted by Donald Trump’s threats to impose potentially devastating tariffs and even annex Canada, making it the 51st US state.

This announcement triggered a leadership race within the Liberal Party, with Mark Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, emerging victorious. Carney was sworn in as prime minister but faced an immediate challenge—he didn’t have a seat in the House of Commons, making him a political target for opposition parties.

Carney was in the role for just nine days before he called a snap election.

Key election players

Mark Carney (Liberal Party): The incumbent Prime Minister, Carney, is seeking to secure a mandate after being thrust into office following Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Carney, a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is running on his economic expertise and promises to tackle Canada’s housing crisis and economic instability through government intervention.

Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party): Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, has emerged as the main opposition challenger. A populist figure, Poilievre is focusing on deregulation and a market-driven approach to housing. His campaign also emphasizes a tough stance on crime, advocating for tougher sentences and challenging certain Charter of Rights and Freedoms protections to address public safety concerns.

What’s at stake?

Economic direction: The candidates’ contrasting approaches to economic management are a central issue. Carney advocates for stronger government intervention to address pressing issues like the housing crisis, while Poilievre promises to reduce government regulation and encourage private-sector solutions.

National sovereignty: Both leaders have made their position clear regarding Canada’s sovereignty. They have firmly rejected any notion of Canada ceding its independence to the United States. This issue is particularly sensitive given former U.S. President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on tariffs and annexation.

Public safety and social issues: Poilievre has gained traction among voters by promising to take a hardline stance on crime, which has resonated with those concerned about rising crime rates. Carney, on the other hand, has focused more on social welfare policies and tackling income inequality.

Smaller parties

The New Democratic Party (NDP), Bloc Québécois, and Green Party remain in the race. The focus shifts to the economy and Canada’s relationship with the US.

Canada’s Electoral System

Canada’s parliamentary election system means that voters in 343 ridings across the country are effectively choosing individual candidates rather than directly voting for a leader. The party that wins the most seats forms the government.

172 seats is the magic number for a majority government. Anything less means the governing party will need to collaborate with others.

Basic facts about the Election

A total of 28 million registered voters will head to the polls. The number of constituencies, known as ridings, has increased by five since the last election in 2021, expanding the voting districts to ensure more accurate representation of Canada’s population.

The election will be managed by Elections Canada, an independent body responsible for overseeing the voting process. Ballots will be counted manually under supervision, with results being posted on the Elections Canada website roughly 30 minutes after polls close.

Liberal Party holds 152 seats in dissolved Parliament

In the dissolved parliament, the Liberals held 152 seats and governed primarily through a supply-and-confidence agreement with the New Democratic Party (NDP), a left-wing progressive group with 24 seats. However, the NDP ended the agreement in September.

The Conservatives were the official opposition in the last parliament, securing 120 seats.

The Bloc Quebecois, advocating for Quebec’s independence and fielding candidates only in the predominantly French-speaking province, held 33 seats.

The remaining seats were divided between two Green Party members, three independents, and four vacancies.