China retaliation on US farm goods hits soybeans, bolstering Brazil

By Ella Cao and Naveen Thukral

BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China’s retaliation on Friday against new U.S. tariffs is poised to accelerate Beijing’s move towards alternative suppliers for agriculture goods including Brazil, a shift that began during the trade war of President Donald Trump’s first term.

Beijing unveiled a slew of countermeasures, including additional duties of 34% on all U.S. goods, which are on top of the 10-15% tariffs placed on roughly $21 billion worth of agricultural trade in early March.

“It is like shutting down all U.S. agricultural imports. We are not sure if any imports will be viable with 34% duty,” said a Singapore-based trader at an international trading company which sells grains and oilseeds to China.

“The main impact will be on products like soybeans and sorghum. It is not going to be so much on wheat and corn as China has not been buying much of wheat and corn from the U.S. this year anyway,” the trader added.

A European grains trader said that the European Union, which has also vowed to retaliate, was also likely to put tariffs on U.S. soybeans.

“It’s all about soybeans. A major concern is if there is no agreement before the new crop for U.S. soy,” the trader said.

“As a big picture conclusion, all this trade war is bearish U.S. ags and bullish other origin ags,” the trader said.

The March levies have accelerated a pivot away from U.S. soybean imports and shifted demand to Brazil, where a bumper harvest puts it on track to deliver a record-breaking second-quarter import surge for China.

“Brazil will be by far the main beneficiary, the biggest supplier that can replace U.S. soybeans to China. But others could benefit too, including Argentina and Paraguay. On wheat Australia and Argentina should benefit,” said Carlos Mera, head of Agricultural Market Reasearch at Rabobank.

Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from April 5 and higher duties on certain other countries including 34% on China, pushing the global trade war into overdrive.

China remains the largest market for U.S. agricultural products, but imports of U.S. farm goods dropped for the second consecutive year, falling to $29.25 billion in 2024 from $42.8 billion in 2022.

Also on Friday, China suspended import qualifications for sorghum from C&D (USA) Inc., which is Chinese-owned, citing phytosanitary problems. It suspended import qualifications of poultry meat and bone meal from American Proteins, Mountaire Farms of Delaware and Darling Ingredients.