Stocks rise and fall when Trump gives the word

Artificial intelligence (in other words, “OpenAI and the companies in its ecosystem”) has been turbocharging stock markets since ChatGPT was released in 2022.

The clearest example of the sustained rally we’ve been enjoying: In recent weeks, the S&P 500 basically hit a record close each time the index rises — even if it’s a miniscule 0.05% tick upwards.

That’s not to say investors aren’t worried about a possible AI bubble forming. If you squint a bit, Nvidia’s huge investment deal with OpenAI can look like one hand passing a wad of cash to another, while OpenAI’s ambitious Stargate project, despite only having one “star” in its name, might need something like the energy of five to power it.

None of that, however, has halted stocks’ long-run march upward. Until one man said a few words.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump, in response to China tightening exports of rare earths, introduced new 100% tariffs on the Asian giant, on top of existing rates. “Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software,” Trump added.

That single measure wiped out almost $800 billion from major tech firms, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite falling the most since April, when, well, we all know what happened then.

One of the few people that, with a single utterance, could move billions is Taylor Swift. Trump is another. And “the rest is History,” as Trump wrote.

Trump slaps new tariffs on China. The president announced tariffs of 100% on imports from China starting Nov. 1, in response to Beijing tightening its exports of rare earth metals. However, Trump said Sunday that “all will be fine” with China.

Chinese exports growth beats expectations. Shipments out of the country grew 8.3% in September from a year earlier, higher than the Reuters poll’s estimate for a 7.1% increase and rebounding from August’s six-month low. Imports also surpassed expectations.

Israeli hostages released. Palestinian militant group Hamas on Monday released the first seven surviving Israeli hostages on Monday, marking the first stage of a ceasefire deal brokered with Trump’s help.

Stocks hit by trade war reigniting. Major U.S. indexes slumped Friday, with tech behemoths losing $770 billion in market capitalization. On Sunday night stateside, U.S. futures rebound. Asia-Pacific markets, however, fell Monday, with Chinese stocks declining the most.

[PRO] China will remain leader in robotics. That’s according to Morgan Stanley, which wrote in a Sept. 30 report — shared with the media last week — that there’s “potential in Chinese manufacturing” to grow rapidly in the next few years.