Polling shows Germany’s 2025 election will bring a shift, but not a far-right leader

Berlin — German voters will cast ballots Sunday in a crucial federal election that could reshape the country’s political landscape. With the collapse of the previous coalition government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Germans are expected to choose a new direction for Europe’s largest economy.

The frontrunner to become the next German chancellor is Friedrich Merz, leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union party. Polls show the CDU enjoying a comfortable lead, with 28% support. 

But it’s the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany party that has caught the attention of many analysts ahead of this election. The AfD has surged in popularity and is currently polling second, expected to take about 21% of the vote, while the liberal Social Democratic Party (SPD) is polling at 16%, and the Greens at 14%.

It’s highly unlikely that any single party will garner anywhere near the outright majority of seats in the parliament, or Bundestag, in this election that would be required under Germany’s electoral system to form a new government on its own.

Instead, parties must negotiate alliances to form a government, with the party that takes the most seats generally putting its leader into the chancellor role. This proportional representation system is intended to ensure broader representation and political stability. Coalition governments often require compromises between parties with starkly differing policy priorities, making governance a process of negotiation.

Despite their swelling popularity, all the mainstream German parties, including Merz’s CDU, have categorically ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD — which President Trump’s advisor Elon Musk has backed in the elections — citing the party’s links to far-right extremism. That exclusion means it is virtually certain that the AfD will not be part of the next government.

Who is Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next leader?

Ideologically conservative entrepreneur Merz, 69, is widely expected to become Germany’s next chancellor. Known for a straightforward approach to politics, Merz has promised to revitalize Germany’s stagnating economy, lower taxes and tighten immigration policies, arguing that the country needs to become more competitive on the global stage.

Merz has also called for Germany to boost its defense spending from the current €50 billion to €80 or €90 billion annually, after 2028, citing concerns over European security and the need to counter Russian aggression — all the more important as Mr. Trump appears to be realigning U.S. foreign policy away from America’s decades-old NATO allies and its firm backing of Ukraine amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.

“It’s not just about Ukraine. It’s about ensuring peace in Europe,” Merz said during a recent visit to Kyiv, where he reaffirmed Germany’s commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

Merz sees a growing challenge in Germany’s relationship with the U.S. and has warned of a possible “epochal rupture” if U.S. leadership continues down an isolationist path. Without naming anyone, he’s voiced concern over the possibility of an American president who “admires authoritarian regimes and disregards various norms,” and underscored the importance of Europe strengthening its own defense capabilities.

Merz has also proposed the formation of a European defense contact group, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Poland, to coordinate strategies more effectively.

Despite his conservative stance, Merz remains committed to Germany’s role in the European Union and the NATO alliance. He has called for a unified European approach to global security, ensuring that Germany remains a key player in shaping the continent’s future.

Merz has reacted strongly to a spate of recent terrorist attacks in Germany carried out by migrants and asylum seekers from Syria and Afghanistan.

After a Syrian man, said by authorities to have been inspired by ISIS, killed three people and wounded eight in a knife attack in the city of Solingen, Merz told CBS News that closed-circuit video at all public events is something he’d consider useful.

“Technically, so much more would be possible than is currently allowed politically,” he said, referring to security methods now available thanks to advances in video and artificial intelligence technology. 

Merz has also backed tougher immigration laws and the rapid deportation of asylum seekers convicted of crimes in Germany.

As Germans head to the polls this weekend, they will essentially be choosing between continuity, and change. 

While the CDU under Merz represents a shift toward more conservative policies, the outcome of the election will almost certainly necessitate coalition-building and compromise, so the degree of any change will likely be far less dramatic than, for instance, that ushered in by the last national election in the U.S.