Grim recessionary facts since erratic U.S. economic policies took hold

In March, I predicted the U.S. economy would enter recession and in April I explained how Indiana would be especially vulnerable to this downturn (see and https://commentaries.cberdata.org/1310/the-stupidest-of-policies). Unfortunately, I was right. A large tranche of data — both public and private — makes that clear.

The tariffs have descended hard upon American businesses and consumers. Estimates of their downstream effects cluster around a $2,400 cost per family by the end of 2025, dropping to $2,000 a year in 2026 and later years as Americans buy fewer goods (see https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-july-28-2025). This has led economist Justin Wolfers to quip, “Trump has a pronoun problem. He keeps saying he’s imposing tariffs on they/them. But he’s actually imposing them on us.” (See https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1944001832256233877).

Consumer sentiment has dropped by more than 10 percentage points since President Trump’s inauguration day and labor markets have stalled. Help wanted ads nationally dropped by 21% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements and by 27% here in Indiana. The private sector jobs number from ADP shows job growth effectively stopped in April.

These private data tell a rich and consistent story about the economy, but public sector data are more accurate and complete. This requires comment on data integrity and character.

U.S. economic data has been the envy of the world since the Great Depression. It is fast, accurate, nonpartisan and profoundly transparent. It is collected by a group of quiet professionals with input from hundreds of organizations and individuals. These data make the U.S. the most trustworthy and reliable destination for foreign investment.

Trump fired the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Aug. 1 because he didn’t like these data. Trump claimed the data were biased against him. That is false. Trump is afraid of facts and likely to become more fearful as more facts emerge, economic or otherwise. He has good reason to be scared on all counts.

The latest federal jobs report indicated that the U.S. economy stalled shortly after tariffs were announced. Overall job creation dropped to near zero, and manufacturing employment declined by 33,000 jobs in just three months. Since the tariffs were announced, Indiana lost 2,600 factory jobs — and that is without the most recent month’s data, which have not been released.

Factory orders have plummeted to levels not seen since COVID and, before that, the Great Recession. On a scale of self-inflicted economic wounds, this is unparalleled.