ICAR to study risks to India’s rabi crops from La Niña-linked harsh winters

New Delhi: The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) will evaluate the potential risks to rabi crops from unusually cold conditions amid expectations of the return of La Niña that is associated with harsh winters.

The comprehensive study across different crops and regions assumes significance given that rabi crops such as wheat and pulses account for around 45% of India’s total foodgrain output.

“We came to know that this year, we may have a colder winter than usual. So, we would undertake a comprehensive study on the impact of colder season on different crops and different regions,” ICAR director general, and department of agricultural research and education (Dare) secretary Mangi Lal Jat told Mint.

The director general of meteorology at India Meteorological Department (IMD) Mrutyunjay Mohapatra told Mint on Monday that the weather office would unveil a more definitive analysis by October-end.

Rabi is India’s winter cropping season, spanning from around October to April. Crops are sown in October-December and harvested in March-April. The major crops include wheat, pulses, oilseeds, coarse cereals and paddy. The total rabi crop sowing was over 66.1 million hectares in 2024-25.

The rabi season ensures food security for a large population by producing staples such as wheat, pulses and oilseeds, and also contributes significantly to the national economy through food supply and agro-based industries.

La Niña’s impact on winter crops is region-dependent, but often brings increased rainfall and colder temperatures, which can boost soil moisture and replenish water resources for rabi crops. However, excessive rainfall in plains can cause waterlogging, damage crops, delay harvests, and increase the risk of frost, especially in plains such as Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, hurting the yield, said a senior official associated with Krishi Vigyan Kendra, which is an agricultural extension centre that acts as a vital link between the farmers and ICAR.

Little girl

La Niña means the ‘little girl’ in Spanish. The IMD describes it as the “abnormal cooling of the ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean region.” For India, it is often linked to colder-than-normal winters.

According to an IMD official, the most recent La Nina event in India was in 2020-21 and 2021-22 between the months of December and January. However, it’s difficult to quantify the loss due to La Nina, as productivity is dependent on various other factors.

In 2024-25, as per the government’s third advance estimates, the country achieved a record foodgrain production (kharif and rabi) of 354 million tonnes (mt). This was 21.6 mt higher than the foodgrain production of 332 mt in 2023-24, according to agriculture ministry data.

Among the major Rabi crops, wheat commands a lion’s share of over 49% in overall crop area. In the 2024-25 rabi season, wheat was sown over 32.5 million hectares.

Farm output has been witnessing healthy growth in recent years. Output of agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing had grown at an average of 4.4% in the five years up to FY25, with policymakers dubbing above-4% output growth as the new normal.

“Wheat has the capacity to tolerate a lower degree of temperature, so we don’t foresee the impact of cold weather conditions. However, if the temperature remains sub-zero for many days during the flowering stage (towards January-end), then it can impact the crop,” said Ratan Tiwari, director, ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal (Haryana).

Wheat production was projected at a record 115.43 mt for the 2024-25 rabi season, up 2% from 2023-24, according to the agriculture ministry. The increase in production was largely due to favourable weather and the absence of major crop damage from natural calamities.

Part onset

The IMD is expecting the onset of La Nina in some parts of the sea in the three months to December. “There is a probability of La Niña developing during October–December this year. We will announce the forecast for the three months period from October to December 2025 either on 30 September or 1 October,” said IMD’s Mohapatra.

La Niña, usually associated with colder winters in India, is a climate phenomenon that is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. It refers to cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and it can significantly affect weather patterns around the world.

According to the US National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Niña is likely in the next couple of months, with a 71% chance of La Niña during October – December 2025. The probability dips slightly to 54% between December 2025 and February 2026, but a La Niña Watch remains in effect.

Also, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicted that the probability of La Niña conditions slightly increases to about 60%, for October to December 2025.