Iran-Israel Conflict: “Minutes ago, the Zionist regime targeted Natanz again,” Iran state media reported on Friday, hours after tensions escalated following Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel targeting of nuclear sites in Iran.
Israel on June 13 launched airstrikes against Iran’s military targets and nuclear program, as well as targeting scientists and generals. Explosions were seen and heard in the capital city, Tehran. The head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, was killed in the strikes, according to Iranian state television. Due to its “pre-emptive strike” Israel declared a state of emergency.
LIVE Updates on Iran-Israel Conflict
The airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic-missile sites renewed a standoff between two adversaries that risks spiraling into a wider conflict. At least 78 people have been killed and 329 others injured in the Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, according to Iran’s state media.
Decade old rivals Iran and Israel have often avoided a direct full blown war. The conflict between Israel and Iran has shaped the Middle East for decades. It was largely on a low boil as the two sides attacked each other — mostly quietly and in Iran’s case often by proxy.
The escalation happened after Israel engaged in a war with Hamas, impounding Gaza and Palestinians in the process.
Why are Israel and Iran enemies?
Israel and Iran were allies starting in the 1950s during the reign of Iran’s last monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, but the friendship abruptly ended with the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979.
Iran’s new leaders called for the destruction of Israel, decrying the Jewish state as an imperialist power in the Middle East. Further, Iran has supported groups that regularly fight Israel, notably Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels.
Why Is the Nuclear Issue Central to the Israel-Iran Conflict?
Israel’s hostility towards Iran is deeply rooted in the latter’s nuclear ambitions. Over the past decade, Iran’s nuclear programme has advanced considerably, with estimates suggesting Tehran is close to producing enough nuclear material for up to ten atomic bombs, although assembling a functional weapon would require additional months of development.
Iran insists its nuclear activities are peaceful, but Israel and much of the international community remain sceptical, especially after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently declared Iran non-compliant with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years.
Israel views a nuclear-armed Iran as a direct existential threat. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons “one way or the other”.
Can Israel Effectively Damage Iran’s Nuclear Programme?
Israel’s main target was the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, responsible for producing the bulk of Iran’s nuclear fuel, including near-weapons-grade uranium. Striking Natanz aims to disrupt Iran’s nuclear fuel production and set back its weapons development timeline.
However, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is extensive and increasingly fortified. For example, the Fordow facility, built deep inside a mountain to resist airstrikes, remains a significant challenge to target effectively.
The dispersed and hardened nature of Iran’s nuclear sites means that while Israel’s strikes may cause serious damage, they are unlikely to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
It may take days or weeks to assess the full impact.
Historical precedents, such as the 2010 Stuxnet cyberattack, show that sabotage can delay but not eliminate Iran’s nuclear progress, which often resumes with renewed vigour afterward.
What Is Israel Risking in Striking Iran’s Nuclear Bases?
Israel’s decision to launch a large-scale pre-emptive strike carries significant risks:
Escalation to Wider Conflict
Iran has vowed severe retaliation, and the killing of top military leaders, including the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, marks a grave escalation.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned Israel to expect a “bitter and painful” fate. This could spark a prolonged and wider regional conflict involving Iran-backed militias and potentially drawing in other powers.
International Fallout
The United States was reportedly not involved in the strikes and has pulled diplomats from the region in anticipation of retaliation.
Israel’s unilateral action complicates diplomatic efforts, especially with ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US scheduled imminently.
The strikes risk undermining the Iran-US talks and increasing instability in the Middle East. Donald Trump has posted on Truth Social urging Iran to sign the nuclear deal with US on 13 June, and easrning them that the ‘planned attacks’ would ‘get much worse’.
Limited Long-Term Impact
If the damage to Iran’s nuclear programme only delays progress by a year or two, Israel may have taken a disproportionate risk. The possibility that Iran will accelerate its nuclear ambitions underground could ultimately make the threat harder to counter.
Economic Consequences
The Israeli airstrikes caused immediate volatility in global markets, with oil prices surging sharply due to fears of disruption in the Middle East, further highlighting the broader global stakes involved.
How do Israel and Iran’s military capabilities compare?
Israel holds a significant technological and military edge over Iran, largely due to extensive US support. It operates advanced weaponry like the Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter—the only Middle Eastern country to do so—and is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, though it remains officially unacknowledged.
In contrast, Iran’s military relies on older aircraft, indigenous weapons development, and missile stockpiles, including ballistic missiles and drones used in recent attacks.
Iran’s nuclear programme has advanced, with growing reserves of highly enriched uranium that could be quickly weaponised if Tehran chooses, though it has yet to master the full process.
Israel’s robust air defences, including Arrow and David’s Sling systems, intercepted 99% of Iranian missiles and drones in 2024, highlighting the challenge Iran faces in penetrating Israeli defences.
Iran’s own missile defence systems, such as Russia’s S-300 and the local Arman system, are less battle-tested.
Both countries possess cyberwarfare capabilities. Israel and the US are suspected of deploying the Stuxnet malware that disrupted Iran’s nuclear enrichment over a decade ago.
Iran, meanwhile, conducts cyber operations ranging from information warfare to destructive attacks, including attempts to disrupt Israeli infrastructure like water systems, reflecting the ongoing covert dimension of their conflict.
Israel-Iran Conflict Effect on Crude Oil
Oil jumped and stocks slid after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program sites in a major escalation of tensions in the Middle East. Gold advanced.
Brent crude gained 8.3%, having earlier surged as much as 13% in the biggest intraday jump since March 2022. S&P 500 futures were down 1.2% after paring deeper losses. US Treasuries were little changed, with the yield on the 10-year note at 4.36%.
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