Pakistan airspace closure: Why Copenhagen and Vienna emerge as new en route points for Air India

As Pakistan closed its airspace for Indian airlines effective 1800 hours from April 24 for a month, a spate of diversions started. While the first flights diverted to the nearest point where refuelling and quick turnaround were possible, a pattern formed later in the day. IndiGo’s flight from Sharjah to Amritsar, which had to change its course midway, diverted to Ahmedabad before continuing its journey onwards. Air India saw diversions of flights from London and Paris to Abu Dhabi, while flights from North America diverted to Vienna and Copenhagen.

Also read: Indian airlines face extra hour of flying time as Pakistan shuts airspace

As things became clear, the airline seemed to have put a plan in place to utilise Copenhagen and Vienna as the points for enroute technical stops for flights to or from North America. This has led to significant delays in the network with some flights being delayed by three to six hours. A technical stop involves refuelling in this case, but each landing comes with its set of procedures, which includes transit checks even when passengers have not deplaned and ensuring the minimum turnaround time needed for cooling of brakes and other equipment. This has multiple impacts, one of which is increased cycles. Aircraft parts are up for checks and maintenance based on the number of cycles and hours. The increased number of landings would increase the cycle count, potentially throwing a spanner in Air India’s plans.

Copenhagen and Vienna are airports where Air India currently operates and some of the cheaper ones to operate in Europe. Additionally, they are not as congested as London Heathrow, Paris or Frankfurt where getting a slot is difficult and turning around a plane will take longer. They also fall mid-way in terms of block time, which would help to have a crew base on a temporary basis and change the crew, ensuring adequate rest as per the Flight Duty Time Limitations (FDTL). Air India has so far not cancelled any sectors, but it may be forced to reduce frequency to some as it does not have spare aircraft to operate and use as buffer in case of delays and their cascading effect.

IndiGo’s plans may be impacted

Interglobe Aviation, the parent of IndiGo, saw a drop of 3.8 per cent in its share price, even as the benchmark index was down 0.8 per cent on Friday. IndiGo, which was the first to cancel flights yesterday, has stopped sale of flights to Almaty and Tashkent until May 7, 2025, potentially stranding tourists who are already booked. Its flights to Istanbul from Delhi would not need a tech stop since they are operated by the widebody B777 aircraft leased from Turkish Airways, but saw an incremental flying time of 30 minutes. Flights to the Middle East from Delhi and other northern airports were delayed due to increased flying time.

IndiGo intends to start thrice-a-week operations to Manchester and Amsterdam from Delhi this July, where it will use a Norse Atlantic Dreamliner on damp lease. The bookings are not yet open, but the closure of airspace could potentially jeopardise the operations since the profitability calculations now need to be revisited, if the closure extends beyond the one-month NOTAM (Notice to Airmen).

Advantage Mumbai?

Delhi overtook Mumbai as the largest airport in India in 2008-9 and there has been no looking back since then. Will this closure, the second since 2019, lead to airlines revisiting Delhi as the primary hub and look at moving back to Mumbai? The congestion and single runway operations at Mumbai airport have always been a challenge, which could ease a bit with the start of Navi Mumbai airport later this year. Will IndiGo and Air India shift to Mumbai or have future plans centred around Mumbai? It will be a big win for Mumbai in this case.

Tail Note

The government has made it clear that a response is on the way. The initial response has been largely political. It remains to be seen if there will be a military response that will follow, and if it does, how long it lasts and the objectives it covers. Will it be beneficial for aviation in the longer run, or do airlines need to have a backup at all times to manage such eventualities needs to be tracked for a market which has been growing at breakneck speed but can be caught on the wrong side of geopolitics.