The trade war is about to ramp up. A guide for tariff week.

Investors and companies hoping for clarity are likely to be disappointed: There may just be another spate of trade war scenarios to game out.

President Donald Trump views tariffs as a powerful tool to reorder global trade and bring back manufacturing jobs to narrow the $918 billion U.S. trade deficit. The levies are also a conduit for raising revenue and a cudgel in wide-ranging negotiations that tackle fentanyl flows, military spending, and a potential TikTok sale.

In the 10 weeks since his inauguration, Trump has levied two rounds of 10% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on imported cars and certain auto parts starting April 3. He has also imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, hitting America’s closest trading partners and throwing into question the U.S.-Mexico-Canada-Agreement he crafted in his first term.These countries have prepped their retaliation, with Europe readying duties on bourbon, motorcycles, and other U.S. goods for April. China is imposing up to 15% tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and warning of more countermeasures to any reciprocal tariffs. Canadian consumers are already boycotting U.S. products.

“And the trade war hasn’t even started yet. The tariffs are going to be massively disruptive,” says Henrietta Treyz, director of economic research at Veda Partners. “There’s no off-ramp. I don’t think there is a leash on the president’s trade ambition until a general election cycle a year from now.”

Treyz and other geopolitical consultants stress trade policy is a core priority for the administration, pushing back on investors’ earlier view that a stock market pullback would create a U-turn in policy. Though dealmaking will ensue, analysts caution many tariffs could be especially sticky—especially those on China, and on areas such as steel and shipbuilding that fall under a national security rationale.

Strategists caution clients that tariff escalation isn’t fully priced into stocks. BCA Research Chief Global Strategist Matt Gertken sees a bear market and recession unlikely to be avoided.

David Lefkowitz, head of U.S. equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, pared expectations for S&P 500 earnings per share estimates to 6% growth for year-end because tariffs could be on the higher end of his base case.

Economists warn tariffs are headed toward levels not seen since the 1930s, when levies steepened the Great Depression. Capital Economics forecasts the average U.S. tariff rate rising in the second quarter by 10 percentage points on average for imports for most of the world—and 60% for those from China.

With so much in the mix, one framework for investors is to put the tariff announcements into buckets—from those that have more room for negotiations to those that are stickier.

This week the Trump administration is likely to unveil “reciprocal tariffs,” which it describes as charging others what they charge the U.S. That factors in not just levies but also VAT taxes, currency levels, and possibly even military spending. The administration is focusing on 20 to 25 countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., including China, the European Union, India, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

Analysts expect these levies to start at 10% to 20%, opening the door for bilateral trade talks that could carve out exclusions, lower the rate, or roll them back entirely. While Europe has higher VAT rates, Asian countries tend to have higher tariff rates and more restrictive rules on foreign investment, as well as weaker currencies, which could make them bigger targets.

Officials from other countries have already tried to get ahead of tariffs. India, for example, removed its digital tax on online services and indicated it would cut tariffs on some U.S. imports.

Though that could help in the near-term, Treyz says the U.S. is likely to launch a Section 301 investigation into the country for unfair trade practices. The probe could hit U.S. financial firms with call centers in the country and pharmaceutical companies that outsource the production of generic drugs to India.

The administration is also expected to announce 301 investigations and possible tariffs on semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and shipbuilding. While these probes are allotted 270 days, analysts think tariffs could hit well before then.

There is still confusion about what will happen to tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but most analysts see these salvos aimed at speeding up the renegotiation of the USMCA treaty—or its dissolution. The pact is up for review in 2026.

The steel and aluminum tariffs the administration imposed are likely to stick, with analysts noting that they can fall under the national security umbrella as some types of steel are needed for the energy buildout and military.

That could have far-reaching costs, as every one job in the steel industry is supported by 80 elsewhere in industries that use the steel, says Philip Luck, director of the CSIS Economics Program and former deputy chief economist at the State Department in the Biden administration.

Perhaps the stickiest tariffs are those on China, as they are part of a strategy to reshape the U.S.-China relationship amid a growing rivalry.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer this week is expected to declare China in violation of the Phase One trade deal he helped strike during Trump’s first term, as part of the report due on China.

Analysts are watching to see if he sticks with the enforcement mechanism in the deal to bring China to the table—or skips the process and ratchets tariffs up further on billions of dollars of inputs. That would be on top of the 20% tariffs the administration implemented more recently on $489 billions of Chinese imports. The administration could also push forward on proposals to raise duties on Chinese-made ships coming to the U.S. ports as the administration builds on prior efforts to revitalize the country’s shipbuilding industry at a time China has taken the lead.

Trump continues to talk about a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, leaving hopes for a deal that could include Beijing approving a sale of TikTok, an agreement on currency, Beijing limiting some of its exports flooding abroad, or offers to build manufacturing in the U.S.

But Beijing wants the U.S. to relax the spate of export restrictions that have curbed China’s access to critical technology. And analysts caution any deal is unlikely in the near-term, especially as Beijing hasn’t been willing to set a date for a meeting between Xi and Trump.

With so much fluidity in policy and potential scenarios, bargain hunters like Kimball Brooker, co-head of First Eagle’s Global Value Team, are focusing on quality companies with in-demand products that are more likely to succeed in passing the costs of tariffs to customers and more resilient in an economic downturn.

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com