Vatican Pope Francis dies: Who will be the next Pope? Take a look at top contendors and secretive election process

As Pope Fracis breathed his last on Monday, with global focus now turning to possible successors, there’s speculation that the United States — which has never had a pope — might put forward a contender: Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke, a staunch social conservative.

It’s a sign of how the election could threaten what Francis’ supporters see as his legacy as a reforming pope. As the church has grown in more socially conservative parts of the world, particularly in Africa, the institution could swing away from his relatively liberal positions on issues such as LGBTQ rights, as reported by Bloomberg.

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In roughly two weeks, the College of Cardinals — the highest-ranking officials in the Church, appointed by the pope — will gather in a Conclave to choose a new pope. Around 135 cardinals, all male, will cast their votes, including 21 who were added by Pope Francis in December. This move by the late pontiff could increase the chances of a pope being chosen from Asia or Africa. The last Italian pope, John Paul I, passed away in 1978.

Because the election is held under a vow of complete secrecy, millions of Catholics around the world won’t know the outcome until white smoke rises from the Vatican, signaling a decision.

What is a conclave?

The conclave is the secret meeting where the College of Cardinals gathers to elect a new pope after the current one dies or resigns. The word “conclave” comes from Latin cum clave, meaning “with a key” — symbolising that the cardinals are locked away from the outside world until they reach a decision.

How is the pope elected during the conclave?

Eligibility to Vote:

Only cardinals under the age of 80 can vote. Currently, that’s about 135 men. The conclave is held in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican.

Secrecy: Cardinals are cut off from the outside world — no phones, internet, or communication with anyone outside.

Voting Process: Each cardinal writes the name of their chosen candidate on a secret ballot. The ballots are collected and counted. A candidate must receive a two-thirds majority to be elected.

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Smoke Signals: After each round of voting, the ballots are burned. Black smoke (created by adding chemicals) means no decision yet. White smoke means a new pope has been elected.

Acceptance: Once someone receives the required votes, he’s asked if he accepts the position. If he says yes, he chooses a papal name. Then he appears on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica and is introduced to the world with the words: “Habemus Papam” — “We have a pope.”

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The process is famously unpredictable, and being seen as a front-runner can actually work against a candidate — as captured by the old Roman saying: “He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal.” In the meantime, several prominent cardinals are already being talked about as “papabile” — potential papal candidates.

Parolin, 70, is the current Vatican’s secretary of state and one of Italy’s strongest contenders. He is well-known for his diplomatic skills and could be seen as a safe pair of hands within the Church.

Burke, 76, was one of Francis’ most vocal critics and is a former archbishop of St. Louis, Missouri. He opposed any softening in the pontiff’s position toward divorce, LGBTQ rights, and in 2014 said the church had become “like a ship without a rudder.”

The 69-year-old Italian cardinal could emerge as a continuity candidate if the election comes down to contest between progressives and conservatives. He is the current president of the Episcopal Conference of Italy and is considered to be a favorite among those who want a continuation of Pope Francis’ policies. He is known for his humanitarian and diplomatic efforts, including a peace mission to Ukraine.

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Turkson, 76, would be the first black Pope in modern history. He was a frontrunner during the 2013 conclave. Two years later, he helped to write Pope Francis’ encyclical on climate change. He is known for his relatively liberal views on social justice and human rights.

Luis Tagle: the Philippines

Tagle, 67, is prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, and a former archbishop of Manila. A strong advocate for greater inclusivity, he could emerge as the preferred candidate from the Church’s progressive wing.

Erdo, 72, a Hungarian cardinal and Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, could be the preferred choice of those in the Church calling for a return to a more traditional theological doctrine.

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The 45-year-old bishop and Eparch of Saints Peter and Paul of Melbourne could be one of the youngest candidates. He has been particularly vocal about the rights of the people of Ukraine following Russia’s invasion.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)