Investors should look to the S & P 500 ‘s 200-week moving average for a potential support level as the market continues hemorrhaging, according to BTIG. Jonathan Krinsky, the financial services firm’s chief market technician, pointed to the S & P 500’s 200-week moving average of 4,674 as a key level to watch. That is nearly 8% below where the large-cap stock index closed on Friday and would mean the index giving back all of last year’s gain and falling to levels last seen in 2023, when it finished at 4,769. Krinsky’s insight comes as the S & P 500 has cratered on concern that President Donald Trump’s imposition of higher tariffs is sparking a global trade war that will slow economic growth and shrink corporate profits. The S & P 500 has fallen more than 10% in just three trading days, bringing the benchmark index close to a bear market decline of 20% since the February all-time high. In response, multiple Wall Street firms have slashed their year-end targets for the S & P 500. “We won’t rehash all the extreme statistics of last week, but many metrics are at panic levels associated with meaningful bottoms over the past 40 years,” Krinsky wrote to clients in a Sunday note. “The issue is when you get into the capitulation zone, markets often move beyond what many think is likely or possible.” .SPX 5D mountain The S & P 500 over the past 5 days A key reason for expecting that buying may emerge is the fact that the S & P 500 has seen sustained breaks below its 200-week moving average only two times over the past four decades, Krinsky said. Both took place during bear markets tied to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000-01 and the Great Recession of 2008-09. No other declines over the past 40 years pushed the index to a point below the 200-week average, the chart watcher said. In the 1987 crash, Krinsky noted that the S & P 500 bottomed around its 200-week moving average at the time. Back then, it would have “paid to buy into” the 200-week moving level, he said. “We don’t know if we get there, but if we do, history suggests it holds, at least initially,” Krinsky said.
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Investors should look to the S&P 500‘s 200-week moving average for a potential support level as the market continues hemorrhaging, according to BTIG.
Jonathan Krinsky, the financial services firm’s chief market technician, pointed to the S&P 500’s 200-week moving average of 4,674 as a key level to watch. That is nearly 8% below where the large-cap stock index closed on Friday and would mean the index giving back all of last year’s gain and falling to levels last seen in 2023, when it finished at 4,769.
Krinsky’s insight comes as the S&P 500 has cratered on concern that President Donald Trump’s imposition of higher tariffs is sparking a global trade war that will slow economic growth and shrink corporate profits. The S&P 500 has fallen more than 10% in just three trading days, bringing the benchmark index close to a bear market decline of 20% since the February all-time high. In response, multiple Wall Street firms have slashed their year-end targets for the S&P 500.
“We won’t rehash all the extreme statistics of last week, but many metrics are at panic levels associated with meaningful bottoms over the past 40 years,” Krinsky wrote to clients in a Sunday note. “The issue is when you get into the capitulation zone, markets often move beyond what many think is likely or possible.”
The S&P 500 over the past 5 days
A key reason for expecting that buying may emerge is the fact that the S&P 500 has seen sustained breaks below its 200-week moving average only two times over the past four decades, Krinsky said. Both took place during bear markets tied to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000-01 and the Great Recession of 2008-09.
No other declines over the past 40 years pushed the index to a point below the 200-week average, the chart watcher said.
In the 1987 crash, Krinsky noted that the S&P 500 bottomed around its 200-week moving average at the time. Back then, it would have “paid to buy into” the 200-week moving level, he said.
“We don’t know if we get there, but if we do, history suggests it holds, at least initially,” Krinsky said.
