The New York City mayoral race has tightened dramatically, with former governor Andrew Cuomo cutting Zohran Mamdani’s lead to just 10 points, according to a new Suffolk University poll released on Monday (October 27). The election is set for November 4.
Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, holds 44% support among likely voters, while Cuomo, running as an independent, has climbed to 34%. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa trails at 11%.
In September, Suffolk polling showed Mamdani ahead by 20 points.
Sliwa voters could tip the balance
David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, said Sliwa’s supporters may hold the key to the outcome.
“There is one person in New York City whose voters could have an outsized impact on the outcome,” Paleologos said. “That person isn’t Mayor Eric Adams, Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Senator Chuck Schumer, or any New York billionaire. It’s Republican Curtis Sliwa, whose voters hold the 11% blocking Cuomo from winning the race.”
Among Sliwa supporters, Cuomo leads overwhelmingly as a second choice, 36% to Mamdani’s 2%.
Cuomo gains among Hispanics, independents
The poll shows significant movement among two critical blocs. Cuomo now leads Mamdani by 1 point among Hispanic voters, after trailing by 30 points in September. He also flipped independents from a 18-point deficit into a 10-point advantage.
The shift comes after Mayor Eric Adams dropped his re-election bid and endorsed Cuomo. Adams remains on the ballot as an independent.
Affordability dominates concerns
Respondents were nearly evenly split between homeowners and renters. A majority of likely voters—54%—say life in New York City is “somewhat or very unaffordable,” underscoring economic pressures driving voter sentiment.
Other candidates on the ballot include Conservative Party nominee Irene Estrada and independents Joseph Hernandez and Jim Walden.
Polling methodology
The Suffolk survey was conducted October 23-26, through live phone interviews with 500 likely voters across all five boroughs, in English and Spanish. The margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points.
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