WTC Final scenarios: What happens to India’s chances if Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia ends in a draw?

India are at crossroads in the World Test Championship (WTC) table. After the draw against Australia in the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT), India are locked 1-1 in three matches so far, with two more Tests to go in Melbourne and Sydney.

Things weren’t this bad two series earlier when India were sitting comfortably at the top of WTC points table after a 2-0 Test series win at home against Bangladesh. Needing just three wins from their remaining eight games (3 vs New Zealand, 5 vs Australia) at that point of time looked like an easy task for Rohit Sharma’s men considering their Test record at home.

However, things took a drastic turn in the days thereafter, as the hosts were whitewashed 0-3 by the Kiwis. This left India with the improbable task of winning at least four games in Australia to make it to the WTC final, which will be played in June 2025.

As things stand, 4-1 scoreline for India is impossible after the rain-marred third Test ended in a draw, leaving the visitors in a do-or-die situation. If India manage to win the final two Tests in Melbourne and Sydney, they will finish at least in the top two. But if the ongoing BGT ends in a draw, India will have to depend on the likes of Pakistan and Sri Lanka for their passage in the final.

What if India vs Australia series ends in a draw?

1st Scenario: If both India and Australia win one game each in the final two Tests, the scoreline would be 2-2 at the end of the BGT 2024-25. That means, India will end with a PCT of 55.26% and will have to rely on the results of South Africa vs Pakistan and Sri Lanka vs Australia Test series.

For India to go through the WTC final with a 2-2 BGT scoreline, Australia need to lose to Sri Lanka by 0-2 while Pakistan must beat South Africa 2-0 too.

2nd Scenario: If India draw both the remaining Tests against Australia, then the series would end with a 1-1 scoreline. In that case, it will make the qualification trickier for both teams.

For India to go through with a 1-1 BGT scoreline, South Africa need to lose both their games against Pakistan. Further, Australia must lose the Test series against Sri Lanka either 0-1 or draw 0-0.

In case of a 0-0 draw between Australia and Sri Lanka, Rohit Sharma’s men would tied with the Aussies at 53.51% PCT. But India will get the nod over Australia due to more number of series wins in WTC cycle. India have three series wins as compared to Australia’s two.

A 2-0 series win for Sri Lanka over Australia would see the Islanders making it to the WTC final as they would surpass India’s PCT.